Author Archives: Dana Pico

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The #ClimateChange activists really, really don’t understand how many Americans live They just blithely claim we can go out and spend $10,000 to $20,000 on things they insist we need

It was early Monday morning, March 12, 2018, when we received five inches of heavy, wet snow at our farm in Estill County, Kentucky, and we lost electricity, in our all-electric home, sometime before 4:30 AM. No, I’m not relying on memory; I’m actually kind of obsessive about recording things in my At-A-Glance Daily Diary, and I have a whole shelf of them, dating back to 1986, missing only 2001’s, which was lost somehow.

Fortunately, it was 42º F and sunny outside by afternoon, which helped some, but it still got down to 52º F inside the house. My wife, having to work the following day, drove to Lexington to stay at our daughter’s apartment, so she could do something really radical like take a shower in the morning. There was just enough sort-of warm water in the water heater for me to take a quick shower on Tuesday morning. While my wife could leave, I had to stay at home to care for the critters.

To make a long story short, we finally got sparktricity back at 4:54 PM on Thursday, March 15th. It had gotten as cool as 37º F inside the house, though warmer in my bedroom, which I heated with sunshine through the window and my own body heat. The high for that day was 58º F, so that helped some. I wonder how bad things would have gotten if we had lost power for 4½ days in mid-January.

Thus, it was with somewhat of a jaundiced eye that I noticed a series of tweets:

Dan Walters: These power outages have me even more appreciative of having a gas-fired stove, so we can at least have hot food. Something to ponder as officialdom tries to make homes all-electric

panama bartholomy: By now we recognize that burning gas in buildings is one of our leading air polluters, more than cars and power plants combined, part of the reason we have terrible air in CA. We can’t clean up our air and continue to burn gas. We also cannot run a gas system just for cooking (1)

panama bartholomy: If we replaced all of our furnaces with amazing 400% efficient heat pumps (http://bit.ly/3CuNhOU) and water heaters with heat pump water heaters we could cut over 90% of gas use to buildings and have dramatically better air. (2)

The embedded link led to this OpEd in The Washington Post:

Why everyone is going to need a heat pump

By Robert Gebelhoff, Assistant editor and Opinions contributor | January 4, 2023 | 2:43 PM EST

For anyone using fossil fuels to heat their homes, I have good and bad news.

The bad: You’re going to want to replace that system with heat pumps eventually, and it might be expensive. The good: The government can help you, and the change will have huge benefits for you and the world.

Oh, the government can help us? How will the government help us?

These heating and cooling systems, once considered useful only in warmer climates, have in the past few years become far more sophisticated. They are now the best chance we have to phase out fossil fuels as a means of heating and could set the stage for a climate policy revolution. . . . .

Americans are not yet as enthusiastic, but policymakers in many states recognize heat pumps’ potential. A New York commission recently approved a plan to require all new houses built in the state after 2025 to use electric systems rather than those running on natural gas, oil or propane. After 2030, it seeks to require homeowners to replace all fossil-fuel-burning systems with non-carbon-emitting ones once they give out.

New York’s approach is the most aggressive in the country, but it’s by no means alone. Fifteen states and more than 100 cities have plans to encourage heat pump installation. The federal government is in on the strategy, too. The Inflation Reduction Act provides generous rebates and tax incentives for those who install the devices, and the Energy Department has dedicated $250 million to increase their production.

Really? Generous rebates and tax incentives? In March of 2021, we had to replace our heat pump based HVAC — heating, ventilation and air conditioning — system due to the record-setting flooding on the Kentucky River. The rising waters destroyed the old system, but while they got into the crawl space, they did not get into our house itself. Replacing the old system was $6,100, $6,100 we didn’t want to spend. The price was lower for us in that the ductwork from the previous system was still in place and usable. Fortunately, we had the cash to do it, though I wonder just how many of my eastern Kentucky neighbors could say the same.

And if you are living paycheck-to-paycheck, $6,100 is a lot of money, money you have to pay up front to get your new HVAC system installed, months before you ever see those generous rebates and tax incentives. While the numbers fluctuate, surveys in May of 2022 showed that 49% of Americans didn’t have the cash available to handle an unexpected $400 expense.

Can people in such close financial straits get the credit to have a new HVAC system installed when they don’t have the cash?

These efforts are well worth the expense. Consider that buildings consume about 40 percent of all energy in the United States. Residential buildings alone contribute to about 20 percent of U.S. carbon emissions, with half heated by burning fossil fuels.

This is where Robert Gebelhoff, an Assistant editor and Opinions contributor for The Washington Post, tells us just how much he doesn’t understand much of America. “These efforts,” he wrote, “are well worth the expense.” Well, perhaps to someone who has a relatively high position for one of our nation’s most famous and important newspapers, (probably) earns a decent salary — and no, I couldn’t find Mr Gebelhoff’s salary or net worth — and could, I assume, afford that expense. And never forger: Mr Gebelhoff once blithely wrote, “NASA’s latest gamble might not pay out, but it’s worth the $2 billion anyway“. But both my wife and I grew up poor, and if we’re not poor now, having retired back to Our Old Kentucky Home, we can and do see plenty of poorer people living around us.

Heat pumps, in contrast, simply move heat from the outside air or ground inside — even during frigid winter months.

They do? Technically, yes, that’s how they operate. But taking heat from the outside air, when the outside air is 10º F, isn’t quite the same thing as doing so when it’s 45º F. That’s part of the reason why, as we have pointed out previously, wealthy New Englanders, when going through expensive home remodeling on Thie Old House, chose gas heating systems. We have also previously noted that it “seems that everybody wants a gas range,” even though the climate activists don’t want people to have that choice. Today’s left appear to be pro-choice on exactly one thing.

Our remodeled kitchen, including the propane range! All of the work except the red quartz countertops was done by my family and me. Click to enlarge.

Us? We remodeled our kitchen — the whole house was a livable but nevertheless fixer-upper home when we bought it — in 2018, after the power-outage but still planned before it, and we added what my wife wanted, a gas, propane actually, since there’s no natural gas service in our rural area, range, a propane water heater — our electric one was on its last legs anyway, so we needed to replace it — and a propane fireplace. When it got down to -5º F over the Christmas holiday, and our heat-pump based HVAC really couldn’t keep up, that fireplace kept it nice and warm at home. When the floods of 2021 destroyed the old heat-pump HVAC system, the propane fireplace kept us warm.

We had, of course, learned our lesson in our previous home in Jim Thorpe, Pennsylvania. We got fourteen inches of heavy, wet snow on Christmas Day of 2002, and yes, the power failed there as well. We had a heating oil fired steam boiler for our heating system, but it still required a 110-voly, 20-amphere electric circuit to activate the boiler and run the pump. The power was restored at around 6:30 PM . . . on December 26th. We subsequently added a woodstove, which was easy enough, because the previous owner had installed a hearth and chimney for one.[1]If we had to replace that system with a heat-pump based HVAC one, it would have been very expensive. Not only would it need to be a system with 50% more capacity than the one we have here, because … Continue reading

A cheery fire in our wood stove in Jim Thorpe, December 18, 2016.

Would it be superstitious of me to note that we never had a subse-quent power failure of more than a few hours since we installed the alternate heating systems? 🙂

Naturally, I haven’t quoted every word of Mr Gebelhoff’s original, but, further down is this:

This is why heat pumps often save energy costs in the long term, even though they can be expensive to install, especially when replacing existing systems. Cost estimates vary widely depending on the size and age of a house, ranging from as low as $3,000 to upwards of $20,000.

How blithely he wrote that! Yes, heat pumps “often save energy costs in the long run,” but it’s that “expensive to install” part that one of the Washington elite just doesn’t get: you have to have the money to install them in the first place, and that “upwards of $20,000” part isn’t always easy for people. When 49% of Americans, hit hard by inflation in 2022, can’t handle an unexpected $400 expense, how does Mr Gebelhoff expect them to write a check for ten or twenty grand?

One last paragraph from Mr Gebelhoff:

Naturally, efforts to push consumers to embrace heat pumps have generated much anxiety on the right. Republicans in New York have panned their state’s plan as “radical” and claimed it will leave residents “in the dark and in the cold.” But policymakers must not flinch. Yes, retrofitting homes can be expensive. The answer is to offset the costs with subsidies, as many states are already doing.

With this, the Post’s columnist was right there on the cusp, right at the point of realizing that yes, the power can go out, but if he did realize it, he never mentioned it; there isn’t a single word in his column telling us what people who are completely committed to all-electric heat would do in sub-freezing weather — something fairly common in the winter in New York state, when the electricity failed. When Buffalo and Watertown and the other areas in upstate New York get hammered by three or four feet of lake-effect snow, power outages are frequent. If they happened to be dependent upon the type of fuel-oil burner that my family had in Pennsylvania, or the gas furnace my daughter had installed in her home in Lexington when her heat-pump powered HVAC system failed, a simple, gasoline-powered generator that can be bought at Home Despot or Lowe’s can provide the current the 110-volt, 20-amp circuit such systems use to keep their homes warm. A heat pump? The system I have here is on two separate — one for the exterior condenser and one for the crawl space unit — 220-volt, 50-amp circuits. That’s going to require a much larger, much more expensive generator.

Mr Gebelhoff isn’t stupid; you don’t get hired by The Washington Post if you’re an idiot. But, living in the liberal Washington bubble, he is seemingly ignorant about how many Americans live. Not to pick solely on him — his OpEd column is simply a catalyst for mine — but this is a common problem amongst the climate change activists: they simply do not understand the problems that so many Americans work, and can be completely airy-fairy about suggesting policies which will make Americans poorer.

References

References
↑1 If we had to replace that system with a heat-pump based HVAC one, it would have been very expensive. Not only would it need to be a system with 50% more capacity than the one we have here, because the house was 50% larger, but since the system in Pennsylvania was used steam radiators rather than forced air ducts, we’d have had to have those installed as well, in a house built in 1890.
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Not enforcing the law has not made Kensington wealthier

I will admit it: I’m pretty surprised that the we-hate-the-police Philadelphia Inquirer ran this story. It seems as though the poor people in Kensington, one of Philly’s worst neighborhoods, aren’t that opposed to law enforcement, not if it makes their lives better.

Announcement of how opioid settlement money will be spent in Kensington elicits mixed responses from community members

“We’re known as the Disney World for users. If you give free food and a free shower and free needles, why should you ever leave and return home?” asked Patrice Rogers, a resident and the director of Stop the Risk.

by Lynette Hazelton and Aubrey Whelan | Saturday, January 7, 2023

Kensington is in the midst of two crises.

One is the opioid addiction epidemic that resulted in a growing number of drug-related deaths in Philadelphia over the past years, including a record 1,276 fatalities in 2021, the latest statistics available.

When Mayor Jim Kenney unveiled the city’s plan Thursday to spend the first $20 million of the $200 million opioid settlement payment, much of it was directed to prevention services and reducing the harm of addiction.

The plan includes $7.5 million for Kensington Wellness Corridors Investments, a planning effort that will fund home repairs, help residents battle foreclosures, and improve parks and schools in the neighborhood. Bill McKinney, executive director of New Kensington CDC, and Casey O’Donnell, CEO of Impact Services Corporation, both advocates of participatory decision-making, are leading this effort and are committed to centering the views and needs of Kensington community.

“While it is often good for business to position ourselves as lone wolves in opposition to everything,” said McKinney, a longtime Kensington resident, “it is not good for actual solutions. Those of us who actually live here are aware that we are all interconnected and a comprehensive solution is necessary.”

It’s a long article, 1,027 words, and I really wish I could just reproduce the entire thing, for the benefit of those who would otherwise be stymied by the Inquirer’s paywall.

“The $7.5 million helps,” said O’Donnell, “but what is as important is people coming to the table.”

The plan calls for $3.1 million for overdose prevention and $400,000 to support the Kensington Community Resilience Fund, a public-private-community partnership addressing quality-of-life impacts of the opioid crisis in the Kensington, Harrowgate and Fairhill neighborhoods.

Meaning: the Philadelphia Badlands, a name for the area which led the Inky to wax wroth.

Kensington’s reputation is so bad that the government of Mexico used scenes from the area in a national anti-drug campaign.

There is also money set aside for outreach and engagement, housing, treatment initiatives, juvenile justice, and alternatives to incarceration.

But for community residents there is another more pressing crisis: public safety.

Kensington is home to one of the nation’s largest open-air narcotic markets, turning some blocks into shooting galleries — for both needles and guns. The first child shot this year was a 7-year-old Kensington girl hit by a stray bullet while resting in her great-grandmother’s house.

Guillermo García , 53, who has lived in Kensington since he was 4 years old and serves as the de facto block captain for his Swanson Street and Indiana Avenue community, believes the only way to improve the quality of life in Kensington is to eliminate drug sales, which he says are the source of all other issues — chronic homelessness, overdose fatalities, gun violence, and the lack of economic alternatives for juvenile drug dealers.

“The main thing is the drug sales, and that’s where all the homelessness comes in with addicts sleeping on your steps. It’s from the drugs,” said García.

And the only way to eliminate drug sales, he said, is to have a robust police presence in the neighborhoods.

There’s a lot more at the original, but it’s mostly the same thing: Kensington residents asking for, practically begging for, more police protection, and for the Philadelphia Police Department to clean up the open-air drug markets.

This shouldn’t be a surprise: in the 2021 Democratic primary for District Attorney, incumbent District Attorney Let ’em Loose Larry Krasner received 708 votes in the 45th ward in Kensington, while Carlos Vega, who wanted to do something really radical like actually prosecute criminals, got more than twice that, 1,511 votes. In one of the areas most seriously afflicted with crime, the residents were voting for law enforcement.

But the Philadelphia Police tolerate crime. The Inquirer actually endorsed Mr Krasner for re-election, because the well-heeled Editorial Board members don’t live in Kensington or the Badlands.

One of two bullet holes in the door of Helen Figeroa, whose 7-year-old great granddaughter was shot in the ankle after a bullet came through the door from outside. Photo by Jessica Griffin, Philadelphia Inquirer Staff Photographer. Click to enlarge.

And now, the Inky is reporting that the residents want law enforcement. It’s easy for the liberals in Society Hill to vote for ‘progressive’ politicians, because leniency in law enforcement doesn’t really affect them.

I don’t normally publish photos from the Inky, but this one really tells a tale. On the 2900 block of Rutledge Street, a couple of guys shooting it out sent a bullet which hit a 7-year-old inside her great-grandmother’s home. The open-air drug markets haven’t enriched the vast majority of Kensington residents, and the horrible condition of Helen Figeroa’s front door is a testament to that. A crack in the 88-year-old dried wood. There was, sometime in the past, some duct tape over part of the crack, I assume to keep the cold winter air from whistling through, though that mail slot would let wind through as well. It needs a good cleaning, and the interior paint touched up.

This is not a door that you’ll find in Chestnut Hill or Rittenhouse Square. Zillow doesn’t have much information on Rutledge Street, with houses similar to Mrs Figeroa’s guesstimated to be worth about $23,000.

But somehow, some way, the oh-so-sympathetic ‘progressives’ just can’t see what their policies, their leniency on crime, have done. Kensington used to be a working-class neighborhood, not wealthy but at least solid and responsible. Now it’s one of the most dangerous neighborhoods in one of America’s oldest cities, and the use of drugs and the open selling of them have only contributed to the area’s downward spiral. The city government may not be able to do much about the poverty in the area, but it does have the power to enforce the law, and that, by itself, will help the neighborhood.

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We tell you what the government will not: you’re going to get poorer this year

It was September of 2016, and the Obama Administration was having none of the bad economic news. The economy was doing great, we were told, unemployment was way down as the economy recovered from the 2008-9 recession, and everything was peaches but the cream. Trouble is, the American people just didn’t quite believe it:

Problem: Most Americans don’t believe the unemployment rate is 5%

by Heather Long | September 6, 2016 | 3:18 PM EDT

Americans think the economy is in far worse shape than it is. The U.S. unemployment rate is only 4.9%, but 57% of Americans believe it’s a lot higher than that, according to a new survey by the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University.

The general public has “extremely little factual knowledge” about the job market and labor force, Rutgers found.

It’s another example of how experts on Wall Street and in Washington see the economy differently than the regular Joe. Many of the nation’s top economic experts say that America is “near full employment.” The unemployment rate has actually been at or below 5% for almost a year — millions of people have found jobs in what is the best period of hiring since the late 1990s.

But regular people appear to have their doubts about how healthy America’s employment picture is. Nearly a third of those survey by Rutgers believe unemployment is actually at 9%, or higher.

Republican candidate Donald Trump has tapped into this confusion. He has repeatedly called the official unemployment rate a “joke” and a even “hoax.”

As it happened, the U-6 unemployment rate — “Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.” — was in the nine percent range, 9.6% to be more precise, and if few people actually look at the various unemployment categories, the public can sort of feel them in their bones.

Well, the supposed good news is that the current ‘official’ unemployment rate has dropped to a multi-year low of 3.5% as the non-farm economy added 223,000 jobs in December. But, with the labor force participation rate still lower than before the disruptions caused by government reaction to the panicdemic — no, that’s not a typographical error, but exactly the spelling I believe it should have — the unemployment number is being held artificially low. The civilian labor force stood at 164,966,000 in December, just 262,000 higher than it was in December of 2019, the last pre-virus year, but the workforce-eligible population, those aged 16 and over, not in the military nor incarcerated, is 4,633,000 higher than in December of 2019, 264,814,000 vs 260,181,000.

When I say that the public feel it in their bones, I look at other indicators, and this story stood out for me:

Macy’s warns holiday-quarter sales will come in light, citing squeeze on shoppers’ wallets

by Melissa Repko | Friday, January 6 2023 | 4:33 PM EST | Updated Friday, January 6 2023 | 7:43 PM EST

Macy’s on Friday warned its holiday-quarter sales will come in on the lighter side, saying consumers’ budgets are under pressure and that it anticipates that squeeze to continue into this year.

The department store operator said net sales are now expected to be at the low- to midpoint of its previously expected range of $8.16 billion to $8.4 billion. It expects adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the previously issued range of $1.47 to $1.67.

For the year-ago period, Macy’s reported revenue of $8.67 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.45.

Shares of the company fell about 4% in aftermarket trading Friday.

Macy’s is the latest retailer to provide clues about the consumer, as investors await holiday results and look for signs of whether demand is holding up as inflation remains high

There’s more at the original, and no, it isn’t behind a paywall.

So, Macy’s, a very-sensitive-to-Christmas retailer, is going to see an absolute drop in holiday revenue, yet the inflation rate in November — the December inflation figures are not out yet — was 7.1%. Macy’s has seen a total holiday revenue decline of roughly 5%, at a time when prices have increased 7.1%. And this was during the first real Christmas season in which people weren’t under mask mandates and the general malaise of the panicdemic.

There are real, solid reasons for this. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that average hourly earnings were 4.6% higher in December over December of 2021. That would be great . . . if the inflation rate hadn’t been much higher. The average American was poorer, in real terms, this Christmas than he was last Christmas. The Biden Administration doesn’t want people to know that, but the public can see it, can feel it, in their wallets and in their bones. And that’s why Macy’s saw a drop of revenue.

There’s more: we might not be in a recession now, but economists believe there will be one before 2023 is over:

Big banks are predicting that an economic downturn is fast approaching.

More than two-thirds of the economists at 23 large financial institutions that do business directly with the Federal Reserve are betting the U.S. will have a recession in 2023. Two others are predicting a recession in 2024.

The firms, known as primary dealers, are a collection of trading firms and investment banks that include companies such as Barclays PLC, Bank of America Corp., TD Securities and UBS Group AG. They cite a number of red flags: Americans are spending down their pandemic savings. The housing market is in decline, and banks are tightening their lending standards.

“We expect a downturn in global GDP growth in 2023, led by recessions in both the U.S. and the eurozone,” economists at BNP Paribas SA wrote in the bank’s 2023 outlook, titled “Steering Into Recession.”

The main culprit is the Federal Reserve, economists said, which has been raising rates for months to try to slow the economy and curb inflation. Though inflation has eased recently, it is still much higher than the Fed’s desired target.

The Fed raised rates seven times in 2022, pushing its benchmark from a range of 0% to 0.25% to the current 4.25% to 4.50%, a 15-year high. Officials signaled in December that they plan to keep raising rates to between 5% and 5.5% in 2023.

There’s more at the original, but it all boils down to one thing: if you’re wealthy, you’ll see some economic losses, but you’ll still be able to live. If you are living paycheck-to-paycheck, you’re in for some real pain.
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The Arabs are all butthurt because an Israeli government minister went to the Temple Mount

The Temple Mount. Photo by D R Pico, which may be freely used, with proper attribution. Click to enlarge.

On Sunday, November 13, 2022, my older daughter and I had the privilege of visiting the Temple Mount in the Old City in Jerusalem. Yes, we had to go through security, but it wasn’t all that tight. We were not asked about our nationality or our religion — we’re Catholic — and the visit was perfectly pleasant. The al Aqsa Mosque itself was closed at the time, but the elevated plaza — is plaza the right word here? — on which it sits is far larger than the mosque itself.

Formerly under Jordanian control, Israel captured the eastern half of previously divided Jerusalem in the Six Day War, including the Old City, the Western Wall, and the Temple Mount. The Temple Mount has been under the control of the Jerusalem Islamic Waqf in one form or another since the Islamic reconquest of Jerusalem by Yusuf ibn Ayyub ibn Shadi, commonly referred to as Saladin, from the Crusader Kingdom of Jerusalem in 1187. Israel returned control of the site to the Waqf shortly after its capture in 1967, and the Waqf is under the custodianship of the Hashemite Kings of Jordan.

The Muslims appear to have no problem with non-Muslims visiting the Temple Mount — they certainly did not stop two American Catholics, Catholics who went to Mass at the Church of the Holy Sepulcre — but when it comes to Jews, well they wax apoplectic over that! Naturally, President Joe Biden, perhaps taking a clue from former President Barack Hussein Obama’s attempts to restrict American policy toward Israel just a few weeks before he left office, didn’t like it.

Israel’s new far-right government draws an early rebuke from the U.S.

Story by Haley Ott | Wednesday, January 4, 2023

The U.S. spoke out Tuesday against “any unilateral actions that undercut the historic status quo” in the heart of the Middle East after a member of Israel’s new ultranationalist cabinet visited a sensitive Jerusalem holy site sacred to both Muslims and Jews.

Note how the CBS News report used the inflammatory “ultranationalist cabinet” to describe the Israeli government. That’s what the left have been doing ever since Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party and its conservative coalition members won the recent elections.

Such moves “are unacceptable,” said State Department spokesperson Ned Price.

Israel’s new far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has previously been convicted of inciting racism and supporting a terrorist group, visited the site known by Jews as the Temple Mount and by Muslims as Al-Aqsa Mosque. He was surrounded by security guards.

It should be noted that Mr Ben-Gvir made his visit to the Temple Mount after sunrise but nevertheless in the early morning, when the sahn was, if not deserted, fairly empty.

Tension has mounted in the Israel-occupied West Bank for months, with 2022 being the deadliest year for Palestinians in the territory in nearly two decades, according to the United Nations.

Really? Guess who was not Prime Minister of Israel for all but the last three days of 2022. Benjamin Netanyahu was not Prime Minister, but Neftali Bennett to begin the year, followed by Yair Lapid on July 1st. Elections on November 1st gave Likud the plurality, and the ability for Mr Netanyahu to negotiate a coalition. It was the Israeli voters who chose the conservative coalition. Apparently, what then-Prime Minister Lapid was doing wasn’t seen as all that good by those voters.

Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority Muhammad Shtayyeh called Ben-Gvir’s visit to the Jerusalem holy site “a violation of all norms, values, international agreements and laws, and Israel’s pledges to the American president,” BBC News reported.

The Mount of Olives, as viewed from the Temple Mount. Photo by D R Pico, which may be used freely with proper attribution. Click to enlarge.

I have to ask: why should a Jew visiting the plaza around the al Aqsa Mosque be a violation of anything? While there is security in visiting the Western Wall, the holiest site in Judaism, there is nothing prohibiting Muslims from doing so. And if there is ever to be peace between Israel and the Palestinians, the kind of tolerance the Jews show to non-Jewish visitors to the Western Wall must also be shown to Jews who wish to visit the Temple Mount.

I am a bit surprised that President Biden didn’t call this off:

Signal to Iran? Israel, US air forces conduct joint drills

Israel’s F-35 fighter jets and six F-15s from the US Air Forces Central Command took part in multi-day joint drills in souther Israel on Wednesday.

By Yonah Jeremy Bob | Wednesday, January 4, 2023 | 18:58 Jerusalem Time

Israel’s F-35 fighter jets and six F-15 fighter jets from the US Air Forces Central Command (AFCENT) took part in multi-day joint drills at the Nevatim air force base in southern Israel on Wednesday in what could be a signal to Iran in the ongoing nuclear standoff.

In an interview with the Jerusalem Post, F-35 Squadron 140 commander Lt. Col. “M” and Capt. “I,” who ran the drill from the Israeli side, both stayed away from getting too specific about the F-35s capabilities regarding any specific country but made it clear that they were ready and capable to strike anywhere that the IDF high command ordered them to go.

Further, the goal of the joint flights and simulated attacks was to train for hitting targets in “deep” enemy territory, often a euphemism for Iran and other countries who do not have immediate borders with Israel.

At a recent graduation ceremony of air force personnel, then-defense minister Benny Gantz said that the graduates would need to be ready to potentially attack Iran in “two to three years.”

There’s more at the original, and The Jerusalem Post does not appear to be behind a paywall.

So, there’s an adult at least somewhere in the Biden Administration, albeit possibly deeply hidden. He’ll probably be gone soon.

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Lies, damned lies, and statistics Did a Philly shooting victim recover from death?

We noted, earlier this morning, a tweet from Steve Keeley of Fox 29 News, telling us of the first homicide of 2023. Mr Keeley included a photo of the press release from the Philadelphia Police Department, 22nd, reporting it. The Philadelphia Inquirer also reported on it, albeit briefly:

11 shootings, 1 homicide mark New Year’s Day in Philadelphia

Jan. 1 saw 10 shootings before 5 p.m., one of which resulted in a grim milestone: Philadelphia’s first homicide of the year.

by Jenn Ladd | Sunday, January 1, 2023

Philadelphians bid good riddance on Saturday to 2022, which saw the city’s deadliest summer on record, more than 500 homicides, and nearly 1,800 shootings. But 2023 started off on a similar foot, with eight nonfatal shootings occurring in the first six hours of the new year. Only one of those resulted in an arrest as of the afternoon.

Shootings continued later in the day on Sunday, with two more reported before 5 p.m., including a double shooting in North Philadelphia, which resulted in one death. An 11th shooting was reported in the evening.

The paragraph on the fatal shooting was further down.

At 2:10 p.m., a 31-year-old man was outside on the 3000 block of Clifford Street in North Philadelphia when he was shot in the chest. He was taken by police to Temple University Hospital, where he was pronounced dead at 2:40 p.m. A second victim, a 34-year-old man, was shot in the left leg and was in stable condition at Temple.

It seems kind of obvious that Jenn Ladd, the reporter who “cover(s) the food community,” “want(s) to know how the sausage gets made and, when possible, (wants) to learn to make the sausage,” who obviously got the Inky’s New Year’s Day news desk duty was reporting from the same police press release as Mr Keeley, but I think that’s plenty of documentation that yes, the Philadelphia Police Department did report that homicide, and that it was a homicide by gunfire.

We also noted that, despite that reported homicide, the Philadelphia Police Department’s Current Crime Statistics page reported zero homicides through 11:59 PM EST on January 2nd. That page has been updated since this morning to tally 516 homicides in 2022, rather than the 514 in the earlier report.

I then went to the city’s shooting victims database, and guess what I didn’t find? I didn’t find the victim reported as shot and killed in it! The database did include the 34-year-old black male who was shot in the leg at the same time, on the 3100 block of Clifford Street, at 2:09 PM EST, but the fatal shooting was not included.

So, did the fatal victim recover from death? Did the bullet somehow spring from his chest, and the wound close? Was his death recorded as ‘suspicious’ rather than a homicide, and did that cause him to not be recorded as a shooting victim?

The city uses a .csv data format, and whether deliberate or otherwise, can be difficult to read. The city would do better to simplify the format — at least if they want people other than computer geeks and nerds to easily read it, which is not necessarily the case — and produce complete data. The homicide report does not include suspicious deaths, but the shooting victims database does not qualify fatal shootings as homicides; the far right data column simply has fatal or not.

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Killadelphia: What’s going on with the statistics?

What is happening with the Philadelphia Police Department’s Current Crime Statistics page? The report, pictured here as of 9:19 AM EST, claims that the 2022 total was 514 homicides, and that, as of 11:59 PM EST on Monday, January 2nd, there had been zero homicides in the City of Brotherly Love this year.

However, Steve Keeley of Fox 29 News tweeted that a homicide had occurred at 2:10 PM, and the victim pronounced dead at 2:40 PM at Temple University Hospital.

More than Mr Keeley just reporting it: he included the image of the Philadelphia Police Department’s press release on it. The Philadelphia Inquirer also reported on it.

At 11:14 PM EST on Saturday, December 31, 2022, Sergeant Mark Fusetti, now retired from the PPD’s Warrant Squad, but who has a source on the inside, tweeted that the final numbers for 2022 were 516 murders, 116 deaths classified as ‘suspicious,’ and 76 ‘other’ cases for the homicide unit.

I’ll tell the truth here: I would trust Sgt Fusetti’s numbers far more than anything, anything! that comes from the Philadelphia city government. As of 9:05 AM EST, the city’s shooting victims database has not been updated to account for any incidents after Thursday, December 29, 2022.

Perhaps I should be charitable here, and assume that whoever does the statistics for the Philly Police is on vacation today, and his replacement isn’t experienced and just made an error or two. But somehow, some way, I’m just not feeling it this morning.

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It’s no wonder newspapers are failing; too many of them are being run as failures!

It was back in the 1960s when I delivered the old Lexington Herald morning, and Lexington Leader afternoon newspapers in my hometown of Mt Sterling, Kentucky. And delivering the newspapers meant every day, and I mean every day: Christmas, New Year’s, and Easter Sunday.

The two merged in 1983 to form the morning Lexington Herald-Leader, but that was long after I ceased delivering newspapers; my best friend used to call it the Herald-Liberal. Still, it was an every day publication. I left Lexington, and the Bluegrass State completely, at the end of 1984.

With the general decline of newspapers, it is hardly a surprised that the Herald-Leader declined as well. At some point prior to my return to Kentucky, the newspaper ceased publishing a physical edition on Saturdays. Out in the boondocks, I cannot get a physical newspaper delivered anyway, so my subscription to the paper is digital only.

Perhaps it’s the fact that I delivered the newspaper every day that makes this a bit more annoying to me, but not only is there no fresh newspaper on Saturdays, with the exception of sports, there’s little reporting as well. That isn’t too surprising: if it weren’t for University of Kentucky sports reporting, primarily basketball reporting, the newspaper might have failed completely!

But this is getting kind of ridiculous! The image to the right is from the left side of the newspaper’s website, and was screen captured at 9:39 AM EST on Monday, January 2, 2023, and it shows, under the “Latest News” heading, one story from 1:00 PM on January 1st, two from December 31st, and one from December 30th. To the right of that are seven highlighted stories, with photos along with the headlines, four of which are dated January 1st . . . and all four are UK sports stories. The three non-sports stories are all dated December 30th.

What, did nothing of importance happen outside of sports on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day?

I’ve mentioned this previously: with my significantly degraded hearing, I need to read the news, not listen to it on television. More, when I read the news, if something is unclear to me on teh first pass, I can go back and read it again, to make certain I got the meaning clearly. That’s why I waste so much money spend so much for subscriptions, to The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Wall Street Journal, and yes, to the Lexington Herald-Leader. While certainly not my only sources, they are the ones I use most frequently on this poor site. You can see the “Subscriber Edition” notation on my screen capture of the newspaper’s logo at the left.

Those other newspapers? Their journalists work seven days a week. Oh, I’m sure that they actually get days off, but there are reporters and staff writers covering the news — and not just sports — every day of the year. The Herald-Leader is much smaller, but man, you’d think that somebody would be covering the news every day!

I get it: everybody wants holidays off. My wife certainly does, but as a registered nurse working in a hospital, well, hospitals don’t get to close for holidays and weekends, and Mrs Pico got to work Christmas Day this year. Surely, surely! the Bluegrass State’s second-largest newspaper ought to have somebody other than UK sports reporters working on the holidays! If publishers are wondering why they are failing, yes, television news and the internet are killing them, but the fact that so many are being run as though they are failing is hurting them as well.

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Killington: Lexington sets a new homicide record

Yeah, it’s true, I concentrate more on homicides in foul, fetid, fuming, foggy, filthy Philadelphia than Lexington, the closest large city to me, the city in which I lived from 1971 through 1984, and the city in which my daughters live, but the City of Brotherly Love didn’t set a new homicide record in 2022, while Lexington did.

Coroner releases name of man killed in Bradley Court shooting that left 2 others injured

by Karla Ward | Friday, December 30, 2022 | 9:47 PM EST | Updated: Saturday, December 31, 2022 | 12:23 PM EST

The Fayette County coroner has identified a man who died after being shot in Lexington late Friday.

Bradley Court, from Google Streetscapes September 2022. This is not the murder scene. Click to enlarge.

Tyron Shaw, 21, of Lexington, was pronounced dead at 7:54 p.m. as a result of the shooting on the 400 block of Bradley Court, the coroner said in a news release Saturday.

Lexington police who were dispatched to a call about an assault on Bradley Court, off Georgetown Street near Price Road, Friday night said they found one person dead and two injured.

Police said the three male victims were on the sidewalk suffering from gunshot wounds when they arrived at about 7:20 p.m.

Shaw was pronounced dead at the scene, while the other two people who were shot were taken to a local hospital. One had life-threatening injuries. The other victim’s injuries were not thought to be life-threatening, police said in a news release.

There’s more at the original, but Mr Shaw was the 44th person murdered in Lexington in 2022. The previous record, 37 homicides, was set in 2021. That’s an 18.92% increase.

Population guesstimates for Lexington-Fayette County — and the entire county is under the unified Lexington-Fayette Urban-County Government — range pretty widely, from the Census Bureau’s 321,793 in 2021, to as high as 346,663 in 2022 by the World Population Review. Using the extremes of those numbers, 44 murders works out to a homicide rate of between 12.69 per 100,000 population and 13.67. That’s nowhere near as bad as St Louis, with 198 homicides in 2022, according to the St Louis Metropolitan Police Department. With a guesstimated population of 293,310, that works out to a homicide rate of 67.51, while Philly’s 516 murders and population guesstimate of 1,576,251 works out to 32.74 per 100,000.

But with ‘just’ 34 homicides in 2020, and a population of 322,570, the homicide rate was a significantly lower 10.54. Something ain’t right in Lexington!

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Killadelphia: Well, isn’t this interesting?

As we noted on Friday, the Philadelphia Police Department’s Current Crime Statistics page is only updated during normal business hours, Monday through Friday, as far as the current year’s numbers are concerned, but the computer program does update previous years’ daily numbers. For example, the report on Saturday, New Year’s Eve, updated the numbers for December 30th from the 557 in 2021 and 494 homicides through 11:59 PM EST on December 29th to 559 and 498 on December 30th.

With the odd nature of the change from the initially reported 502 total for 2020 down to 499, which led some people to speculate that the numbers were fudged.

I had lamented taht I had made a rookie error in failing to get a screen capture of the 502 number, but, fortunately, a fellow styling himself NDJ in Philly did take the screenshot, which he forwarded on Twitter. Yup, that’s the evidence needed!

It occurred to me, as I was showering this morning — many of my best ideas occur as hot water is pouring down my back, so don’t judge me! — that while there’d be no update on December 31, 2022 this morning, the computer’s automatic update would give us the numbers for 2021 and 2020, and perhaps we’d see how things had been fudged.

Also see: Robert Stacy McCain: Another Bloody Year in ‘Killadelphia’

Well, guess what: the December 31st numbers for every past year were reset to zero, with the exception of 2013, which had a number 1 recorded. More, the percentage increase from the previous day last year showed 0%, which means that the computer calculation function had somehow gotten fouled up.

So, how did this happen? Are we supposed to believe that it was the gremlins, or, more nefariously, did someone at the Police Department contemplate the same thing I did, and want to hide the 2020 numbers?