Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Did Philadelphia Police lie about there being 'only' 499 murders in 2020?

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On January 4, 2021, I posted the article, “Killadelphia reaches the milestone: I didn’t think they’d make it, but they did: 502 homicides in 2020.” That soon went out of date, because the Philadelphia Police Department changed the figure on their Current Crime Statistics page to 499 homicides in 2020. I couldn’t prove that they had initially reported 502 killings; it was something that I remembered, but in a truly rookie mistake, I failed to consider that the political powers that be, including Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw — she is a political appointee of Mayor Jim Kenney (D-Philadelphia), not an officer who rose up in the ranks of the PPD, might not want that number to break 500, and the previous record of 500 set under Mayor Wilson Goode (D-Philadelphia) of the MOVE bombing fame during the crack cocaine wars of 1990.

Well, if I made that mistake, someone obviously smarter than me did not. In a Twitter thread started by Philly Crime Update, Sergeant Mark Fusetti, retired from the PPD’s Warrant Unit, wrote:

500 for the 3rd straight year is all but certain. And yes I’m counting the 499 of 2020 as 500 because it actually was

To which I replied:

When I checked https://phillypolice.com/crime-maps-stats/ on January 2, 2021, it said that there had been 502 homicides in 2020. The next day it was down to 499. Did they make a mistake and include January 1 killings, or did they move 3 homicides into 2021, so 2020 wouldn’t hit 500?

Sgt Fusetti responded:

A Deputy Comm made them change it. I’m told they were investigating him for it but he resigned for health reasons

Me again:

Not much of a surprise; I just wish I’d thought to screen capture it when it happened. The city’s shooting victims database shows three fatal shootings on January 1, 2021, times 0030, 0536 and 0538. https://data.phila.gov/visualizations/shooting-victims

A commenter styling himself Over Salted Pretzel — as though a Philly pretzel could ever have too much salt; usually they are undersalted — added:

The 2020 incident CSV file from here lists 500 criminal homicides: https://opendataphilly.org/dataset/crime-incidents

And then I got a tweet from NDJinPhilly with the screenshot I failed to get:

So, what really happened? Was the real number 502, and then someone — perhaps the Police Deputy Commissioner Sgt Fusetti mentioned — didn’t want the City of Brotherly Love to top the 1990 record, and make Mayor Kenney, District Attorney Larry Krasner, and Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw look even worse than they already did, and ‘shifted’ the numbers in 2021, never imagining that 2021 would not only break the record, but blow it to pieces, with 562.

Or was the 499 number accurate, and someone made a misgoof and added the three homicides on New Year’s Day of 2021 into the 2020 numbers, which had to be corrected?

I don’t know the answer to that, and (probably) couldn’t prove it if I did. But whether falsification of data was involved or not, it’s too easy to believe that in the corrupt Philly government it could have happened.

As of 11:59 PM EDT on Monday, November 1st, the Philly Police have reported 447 homicides, in 305 days. That averages out to 1.4656 killings per day, or a projected 534.93 for the year. If that’s the final number, even if 499 for 2020 is accurate, the last three years will have seen 1,596 murders, or an average of 532 per year. Only Philadelphia Democrats could claim that such is a good record.

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