Following Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) freeze-up, there has been speculation that the 81-year-old lawmaker would be unable to serve out his full term, which expires on January 3, 2027. That begs the question: if Mr McConnell resigns or dies before his term is up, who would get the Senate seat?

In 2021, the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Kentucky passed KRS §63.200, specifying the procedures under which the seat would be filled:

• (1) (a) The Governor shall fill vacancies in the office of United States Senator by appointment and the appointee shall serve until a successor has been elected and qualified under subsection (2), (3), (4), or (5) of this section.
• (b) The appointee shall be selected from a list of three (3) names submitted by the state executive committee of the same political party as the Senator who held the vacant seat to be filled, shall have been continuously registered as a member of that political party since December 31 of the preceding year, and shall be named within twenty-one (21) days from the date of the list submission
• (c) In the event the vacant seat was held by a person who was not a member of any political party as defined under KRS 118.015, the Governor shall appoint any qualified voter who is not a member of any political party as defined under KRS 118.015.
• (d) Upon appointment, the Governor shall, under the seal of the Commonwealth, certify the appointment to the President of the Senate of the United States. The certificate of appointment shall be countersigned by the Secretary of State.

But now state Democrats are musing that Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY) might not follow the law! From what my best friend used to call the Lexington Herald-Liberal:

Ky. Dems predict challenge to Senate replacement law amid focus on McConnell’s health

by Austin Horn | Thursday, July 27, 2023 | 3:18 PM EDT | Updated: 10:35 PM EDT

Questions about Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s health were renewed following a widely publicized freeze up on camera Wednesday. The event also re-ignited discussion about the 2021 Kentucky state law he pushed for ensuring that, should he vacate his seat, it would remain in Republican hands.

But Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear may not follow that law.

Governor Beshear vetoed that bill after it passed, but the state legislature overrode the veto, 29-8 in the state Senate, and 70-24 in the state House of Representatives.

“I would imagine you would absolutely see a lawsuit on this,” Michael Abate, a Louisville attorney who’s worked for the Kentucky Democratic Party (KDP) in the past, said.

That law, passed by the GOP-led legislature in 2021’s Senate Bill 228, dictates that the governor select a replacement for any U.S. Senator vacating the office from a list of three provided by the state executive committee of the vacating senator’s party. Both of Kentucky’s U.S. senators are Republicans, including Rand Paul whose term is set to expire in 2028 and McConnell who’s term runs out in 2026.

Actually those are the election years for those seats; the terms actually expire on January 3^rd of the following year. The reporter’s phraseology was sloppy.

Mitch McConnell’s election history, from Wikipedia. Click to enlarge.

While a bit slower than other Southern states, Kentucky has moved to become solidly Republican. Despite being outspent by Amy McGrath Henderson $90.1 million to just a hair under $60 million, Mr McConnell defeated Mrs Henderson by a landslide margin.

Kentucky’s other Senator, Rand Paul, has been elected by landslide margins in all three of his Senate campaigns, including in 2010, which was supposed to be a tight contest. It’s very clear: Kentucky’s voters have chosen Republicans, not Democrats, to represent them in the United States Congress. The Democrats simply want to undermine the will of the voters.

Abate said Beshear would likely push back against the law in one of two ways: ignore the law and appoint the replacement himself or sue against the law.

Either way would deny the Bluegrass State half of its representation in the United States Senate for some time. If Mr Beshear appointed someone not on that list, doubtlessly a Democrat, the Republican Party would immediately file a lawsuit; since the Secretary of State is required to countersign the certification, under KRS §63.200(1)(d), and Republican Michael Adams currently holds that office, Mr Adams could delay his signature long enough for the lawsuit to be filed. If Mr Beshear filed suit himself to challenge the law, he would not be able to appoint anyone to the seat while the lawsuit was in court, and if he tried, the appointment would be held up.

If he took the second option, he would doubtlessly file it in Franklin Circuit Court, for his toady judge, Phil Shepherd, a highly partisan Democrat. We have previously reported on Judge Shepherd’s partisanship.

KRS §63.200(2) specifies that, “If a vacancy occurs more than three (3) months before the election in any year in which any regular election is held in this state,” the seat will come up for a special election to fill it for the remainder of the term. Section 3 specifies that if such vacancy occurs less than three months before a regularly scheduled election, the Governor may appoint a Senator who would serve until the next regularly scheduled election.

President Trump carried every county except two, out of 120, in 2020, and Mr McConnell every county except three. Senator Paul carried every county except three, the same three — Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin — in 2022. With the Democrats only real strength being in Louisville, five of the Commonwealth’s six congressmen are Republicans, and with the GOP having an 80-19, with one previously Democratic vacancy, margin in the state House, and 31-7 in the state Senate, there’s no question for whom Kentucky voters have chose. But Governor Beshear has never actually cared about the will of the people.