When a credentialed media article gives numbers, it’s always wisest to check the math

Screen capture from the Weather Channel, February 12, 2022, showing a woman getting the charging cord for her car, in the weeds, while wearing flip flops for shoes. Note the dilapidated building, complete with broken window, to which the charger is attached. Video provided to Weather Channel by Plug In America.

As our regular readers — both of them! — know, I have not been a fan of the Brandon Biden Administration’s plans to mandate that all new vehicles sold in the United States be zero-emission by 2035. The technology is not ready, and the problems many people will have in charging their plug-in electric cars will be enormous. Those who do not have a garage or secure parking area in which they can install at home charging units will have to depend on commercial chargers, which are very time consuming — it can take an hour or more to charge an electric vehicle, as opposed to five minutes to fill up your tank with gasoline — and more expensive than gasoline.

There are, however, some applications in which plug-in electric vehicles could be practical. William Teach noted that Biden Administration is planning to replace the entire federal government’s 600,000-strong fleet of vehicles with plug-in electrics by 2035. If we’re talking about electric vehicles which will be parked at federal facilities, there will doubtlessly be private contractors being paid to install overnight charging stations for them. Assuming that they are all driven less than range, and all parked back at the fed garage/parking lot, they can at least be practical.

Now comes the School District of Philadelphia:

    Electric school buses are coming to the Philly School District, which plans to replace its diesel fleet in 10 years

    Electric buses have a higher price tag than diesel buses — $365,000 per bus compared to $150,000. But they save money in the long run.

    by Kristen A Graham | Friday, February 18, 2022

    Electric school buses will soon begin rolling on city streets as the Philadelphia School District starts the process of greening its transportation fleet.

    The school system has purchased five electric buses and ordered six more. The 11 electric buses, which will begin carrying students this spring and summer, represent less than 1% of the district’s fleet of buses.

    “We understand the impact that gas emissions has on student health and we’re committed to leading the way to reducing emissions to positively impact health and wellness in our communities,” Superintendent William R. Hite Jr. said Friday at a news conference at the district’s North Broad Street garage. . . . .

    Electric buses have a higher price tag than diesel buses — $365,000 per bus compared with $150,000. But they save money in the long run, said Teresa Flemming, executive director of transportation services. She estimated each will save the district about $5,000 annually. Once the entire fleet is electric, the district will save between $1 million and $1.5 million annually on fuel costs, officials estimate.

There’s more at the original.

The guesstimated fuel savings, of course, are based on guesstimates as to how much electricity will cost. But if the electric buses cost $365,000, rather than $150,000 for diesel buses, and the annual savings from operating the buses are $5,000 per bus, it would take 43 years per bus to break even. Does the School District of Philadelphia keep its buses for an average of 43 years?

Kristen Graham, the article author, didn’t do that very simple math. That’s not exactly good journalism.

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3 thoughts on “When a credentialed media article gives numbers, it’s always wisest to check the math

  1. Once you accept that every word that comes out of a leftists mouth is a lie you never again allow what they say to bother or influence you one iota. And when it comes to math or numbers of any kind especially regarding economics or polls always figure they are lying on the very high side for what they favor and on the ridiculously low side for what they’re against.

  2. They’re also not factoring in the costs of the recharging infrastructure.

    The rechargers for buses are very large (and expensive) and require a hefty current draw to recharge the vehicles in a reasonable time. The faster the recharging, the higher the power requirements. This will likely result in the need to add power capacity to the facility, which will also likely require increased capacity of the power lines feeding the facility and may require the power company to increase their power generating capacity to fulfill the increased demand.

    Someone has to pay for all that. Guess who will be footing the bill?

    By the way, when the people selling electric vehicles are pushing their products, they always talk about how charging times are decreasing, making electric vehicles more competitive with gasoline powered. What they don’t tell you is that the laws of physics still apply. There is no free lunch. If the vehicle’s battery capacity is 150KWH, it requires a 150KW (actually a bit more than that to make up for losses) input over an hour to charge it. So, to increase the charging speed to 1/2 hour, you’d need at least 300KW over that time. To charge it in 15 minutes, you’d need 600KW.

    For perspective, an all electric home has a 220v 200 amp main breaker. Power = Voltage x Current so the maximum peak power that the home can consume before tripping the main breaker is 44,000 Watts or 44KW. The average power consumption of a home over the course of a day is typically less than 3KW per hour.

    So your fast charger needs to have the power capacity comparable to the maximum peak power consumption of about 17 homes.

    What they also don’t mention is that fast charging is very hard on the batteries, which reduces their longevity. Rapid charging these batteries on a regular basis dramatically increases the costs associated with the electric vehicle as replacing battery packs can cost as much as 50% of the vehicle’s initial price.

    If the cost calculations included a life expectancy of 10 years, but the batteries only last 5 years those costs calculations go out the window.

    • Sailor Curt said:

      What they don’t tell you is that the laws of physics still apply.

      Absotively, posilutely right!

      As it happens, I have separate, 200 amp service to my garage/shop, and have investigated at home chargers. Living out in the country, I have something really radical, like the actual room and service to run a home charger. I could install one cheaply, because I have the knowledge, tools and skills to do the electrical work myself, rather than having to pay a sparktrician to do the work for me, and I plan on adding the 220 volt, 50 amp NEMA 14-50 receptacle such a charger would require before closing up the garage walls, not to get such a charger myself, but to have it available for the next owners; I figure that I can spend $100 and add a couple thousand dollars in value to the place.

      With a 220 volt charger, you can recharge a plug-in electric vehicle overnight. Of course, here the electricity could just as easily come from a coal-burning power plant, so . . . .

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