What evidence has there been that the #COVID19 restrictions actually reduced infections?

From my good friend — can I call him a good friend if I’ve never actually met him? — Robert Stacy McCain:

Truth or Satire? It’s Getting Harder to Tell

By Robert Stacy McCain | May 8, 2021

January headline from The Babylon Bee:

 

CNN Unveils New Format Where Hosts Just Watch Fox News And Yell At It

 

This is awfully close to describing what’s happened to CNN in recent months. Once Biden was inaugurated, the network lost its raison d’être of producing anti-Trump propaganda. Ratings for CNN have evaporated since January and, unable to excite their audience with live performances of journalistic fellatio on Biden (metaphorically speaking), they devote hours every day to critiquing whatever is on Fox News.

So the other night, Tucker Carlson raised questions about whether the number of deaths from COVID-19 vaccine are being underreported. He didn’t advance any “conspiracy theory” during that segment, or make claims that could justify Sanjay Gupta’s unhinged reaction:

“What he’s done is he’s basically looked at these open-system adverse reporting systems and said ‘hey look, this suggests that 30 people a day are dying of the vaccine.’ Absolutely not true,” Gupta said on CNN’s New Day.

“The problem is that it continues to stir up this vaccine hesitance or outright vaccine reluctance . . .

Hey, Dr. Gupta: Maybe “vaccine hesitance” doesn’t really matter, but do you really care about Fox News viewers? No, I’m pretty sure you would be very happy if they all died tomorrow. So please spare us your concern-trolling. My thought all along has been that the draconian lockdown regimes and mandatory mask-wearing orders, at best, didn’t do much to stop the pandemic and quite possibly made it worse. Anyone can examine the state-by-state per-capita death rates and see that there is no clear correlation between the severity of the lockdown regimes and the relative safety of populations. Florida is doing just fine, despite all the hate directed at Gov. DeSantis by CNN and other liberal media outlets that prophesied a catastrophe in the Sunshine State.

There’s more at the original.

While I did not look at Florida’s numbers, I have concentrated on Texas, where Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, ended the mask mandate and most other state restrictions on March 10th, to predictions of death and disease by the so-called ‘experts.’

Governor Andy Beshear’s (D-KY) latest thirty-day renewal of the illegal and repugnant mask mandate expires on Thursday, May 27th, at 5:00 PM EDT, just before his other COVID-19 restrictions are scheduled to be weakened, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him issue that one again.

Reiterating that Kentucky will not be repealing its mask mandate anytime soon, Gov. Andy Beshear announced 1,068 new cases of COVID-19 in Kentucky on Thursday, as well as 28 virus-related deaths.

Earlier this week, Republican governors in Texas and Mississippi lifted coronavirus restrictions, repealing their states’ mask mandates and reopening businesses to full capacity. Kentucky will not do that, Beshear said.

“We’re going to continue to lose people until we’re fully out of the woods and everybody is vaccinated,” he said in a live update. “That’s the reason we’re not going to do what Texas or Mississippi has done. Those decisions will increase casualties when we just have maybe even a matter of months to go.”

Except, of course, those decisions did not increase casualties, the seven day moving average of new cases in the Lone Star state being down to 2,651 as of May 6th, the lowest figure since June 17, 2020, while Mississippi is seeing a seven-day moving average of 182 new cases per day, a number not seen since April 14, 2020.

That much, I reported yesterday, but I’ve since done more research. Texas currently has the lowest moving seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases since June of 2020, that average having dropped precipitously since the mask mandate ended. Texas, with a seven-day moving average of 2651 new COVID cases per day, and a population of 29.15 million, has a new case rate of 9.09 new cases per 100,000 population. Texas has no mask mandate and few restrictions. Texas has 29% of the adult populate fully vaccinated, and 39% have received first shot. Kentucky, with a moving average of 581 and a population of 4048 million, is seeing new cases at a rate of 12.97 per 100,000, despite having mask mandate, more restrictions, and a higher percentage of population vaccinated, 33% fully vaccinated and 42% having received one dose. Texas has slightly higher population density, 109.9 per mi² compared to Kentucky’s 107.4 per mi². Despite what the so-called experts claimed, ending the mask mandate in Texas did not lead to unparalleled death and disease. Based on empirical evidence, the capacity restrictions and mask mandates had no positive effect on infection rate.

The scientific method is to produce an hypothesis, and then test it to see if it is true. Actual real world testing of the restrictions has not borne out the hypothesis that our freedoms needed to be restricted, our constitutional rights needed to be violated.

What about Michigan? Governor Gretchen Whitless Whitmer has imposed some of the strictest COVID-19 restrictions in the nation. On May 6, the same date as the figures reported above for Texas and Kentucky, Michigan’s seven-day moving average was 3,317 new cases per day, 666 more per day than Texas’ 2,651. Yet Texas has almost thrice Michigan’s population of 9,966,555 people. Where Texas is seeing 9.09 new cases per day per 100,000 population, Michigan’s rate is 33.28 per 100,000, more than thrice that of the Lone Star State. Michigan has seen 35% of its adult population fully vaccinated, and 44% have received their first, dose, a rate higher than that in Texas, and even slightly higher than in the Bluegrass State. Michigan does have a significantly higher population density of 174 per mi².

But one thing is clear: Governor Whitless’ Whitmer’s restrictions have not helped.

Mr McCain mentioned Florida, but the Sunshine State only lifted all mask mandates five days ago, so there isn’t much difference from Michigan. At a moving seven day average of 4,317 new cases per day, in a population of 21.48 million people, Florida’s average of 20.10 per 100,00 population is just 2/3 that of Michigan’s, despite Florida’s more than twice as great population density of 397.2 people per mi². Michigan’s restrictions have, in general, been far stricter than Florida’s, but, there it is again, Florida is seeing fewer cases on a per population basis.

Again, the empirical evidence is that the greater restrictions don’t reduce China virus infection rates![1]See this as to why I am occasionally referring to it as the China virus.

We have gone through more than a year of authoritarian governors, mostly without the consent of their state legislatures, imposing restrictions on our freedoms and our constitutional rights, because it has been claimed to be necessary to protect us from the Wuhan virus. But once a few governors, all seemingly Republicans, recovered their nerve and started paying attention to our rights, the evidence jumped out at us: the restrictions didn’t help to protect us at all.

References

References
1 See this as to why I am occasionally referring to it as the China virus.
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