This year’s “October surprise” As Joe Biden tries to lower inflation, his actions have pushed OPEC to increase prices

In his efforts to dial down the inflation rate, one would think that President Joe Biden wouldn’t want to see OPEC cut oil production, decreasing petroleum supplies and thereby increasing prices. But perhaps Mr Biden’s actions have had precisely the opposite effect. From The New York Times:

In Rebuke to West, OPEC and Russia Aim to Raise Oil Prices With Big Supply Cut

by Stanley Reed | Wednesday, October 5, 2022 | Updated 3:42 PM EDT

Saudi Arabia and Russia, acting as leaders of the OPEC Plus energy cartel, agreed on Wednesday to their biggest production cuts in more than two years in a bid to raise prices, countering efforts by the United States and Europe to choke off the enormous revenue that Moscow reaps from the sale of crude.

President Biden and European leaders have urged more oil production to ease gasoline prices and punish Moscow for its aggression in Ukraine. Russia has been accused of using energy as a weapon against countries opposing its invasion of Ukraine, and the optics of the decision could not be missed.

“This is completely not what the White House wants, and it is exactly what Russia wants,” said Bill Farren-Price, the head of macro oil and gas analysis at Enverus, a research firm. It also puts Saudi Arabia on a diplomatic “collision course” with the United States, he said.

The cut of two million barrels a day represents about 2 percent of global oil production.

Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, told reporters that the decision was a “mistake and misguided. “It’s clear that OPEC Plus is aligning with Russia with today’s announcement,” she said.

There’s more at the original.

As The Wall Street Journal reported, the stop-gap emergency funding bill to avoid a government shutdown included some major funding for Ukraine:

The stopgap legislation included several provisions beyond funding the federal government’s current operations.

The resolution contains more than $12 billion in aid to Ukraine to help fortify the country’s military with new weapons and support the government in Kyiv as it fights off Russia’s invasion.

That aid includes $3 billion for training, equipment, weapons and other support—such as salaries and stipends—for Ukraine’s military and security forces, and $4.5 billion in budgetary support for Ukrainian government operations. It also dedicates $1.5 billion to replenishing U.S. military stockpiles and those of foreign allies who sent supplies to Ukraine at the request of the U.S.; it also includes $540 million to increase production of critical munitions and $2.8 billion to bolster Defense Department operations in support of Ukraine.

So, in trying to prevent Russia from forcing the price of crude oil higher, President Biden and the United States government will continue to send money to the nation with which Russia is at war. Perhaps, just perhaps, that isn’t the best way to get Vladimir Vladimirovich to pay attention to what the United States wants.

Of course, it wasn’t just Russia pushing for the production cut; Saudi Arabia was as well. From The New York Times again:

Biden Says He Told Saudi Prince He Blames Him for Khashoggi Murder

by Peter Baker | Friday, July 15, 2022 | Updated: Monday, July 18, 2022

President Biden said Friday night that he brought up the murder of Jamal Khashoggi during his closed-door meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and told the prince that he considered him to blame.

While Mr. Biden said nothing about Mr. Khashoggi during the public part of his meeting with the crown prince, he told reporters afterward that he considered the killing “outrageous” and directly confronted Prince Mohammed, who was judged responsible by the C.I.A. for the assassination carried out in Istanbul by a team of Saudi operatives in 2018.

“I raised it at the top of the meeting, making clear what I thought at the time and what I think of it now,” Mr. Biden said. “I was straightforward and direct in discussing it. I made my view crystal clear. I said very straightforwardly for an American president to be silent on an issue of human rights is inconsistent with who we are and who I am. I always stand up for our values.”

He reported that Prince Mohammed, often known by his initials M.B.S., denied culpability.

“He basically said that he was not personally responsible for it,” Mr. Biden said. “I indicated that I thought he was.” . . . .

Mr. Khashoggi was a Saudi contributor to The Washington Post who was critical of the prince’s rule. After his killing, Mr. Biden had said he would make Saudi Arabia a “pariah,” but aides say world events have left him little choice but to deal with the kingdom.

Asked about that remark on Friday, he said, “I don’t regret anything I said.”

But Mr. Biden’s decision to meet with the crown prince left human rights activists and Mr. Khashoggi’s family outraged. Hatice Cengiz, his fiancée, tweeted what she said Mr. Khashoggi would have thought: “Is this the accountability you promised for my murder? The blood of MBS’s next victims is on your hands.”

Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince, was already the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, and his father, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, 86, just appointed him Prime Minister as well.

So, the two nations which have been the number one and number two petroleum exporting nations, and the two nations which lead and drive OPEC, are the two nations President Biden has decided he’s going to piss off. So, when Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, told reporters that the decision was a “mistake and misguided,” and that, “It’s clear that OPEC Plus is aligning with Russia with today’s announcement,” perhaps, just perhaps she might have noted that her boss helped to give Russia and Saudi Arabia a common cause.

Full disclosure: I have been very opposed to the United States and NATO providing military aid to Ukraine. Not only did Ukraine decide to decline NATO membership previously, but the idea that we are fighting a proxy war with Russia directly, with a nation which has a strategic nuclear arsenal easily capable of destroying the United States and Europe, strikes me as utter madness. President Putin is, in some reports — though who can really know what to believe here — thinking very much differently than a Western leader would only means that he could, though not necessarily would, think very differently than we would about the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukrainian troop concentrations, and once the nuclear threshold is crossed, all bets are off. No, I do not want Russia to win its war of aggression against Ukraine, but I don’t want it so badly that I’m willing to risk a nuclear war to prevent it.

Now, Mr Putin is using one of the weapons he does have, a weapon to raise oil prices around the world, just as the northern hemisphere has exited summer and is heading toward winter. This year’s “October surprise,” just a month before the congressional elections, will just take more money out of the pockets of working Americans. And now you know why I call him the dummkopf from Delaware.

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