Morbid math

The flood waters are finally starting to drop. The crest was 30.15 feet, which did not bring it close to our house, so we’re fine, if still stranded; the only road out is still underwater.

The highest water ever recorded, the 41.00 feet (guesstimated, since the river gauge failed), got into the crawlspace of our home last March, and into the garage, but did not get into our house itself.

As of 9:10 AM EST, the Philadelphia Police Department has not updated its Current Crime Statistics page; the image to the left, on which you can click to enlarge, is a screen capture. Since the page is supposed to be updated “during normal business hours, Monday through Friday,” I have to wonder what has happened. Perhaps the responsible person is taking his New Year’s Day holiday today?

The homicide number for 2021 is still stuck on 559, even though The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that “at least 560 people in Philadelphia were murdered, a bigger tally than in more heavily populated cities including New York and Los Angeles”. If the homicide total is 560, using Philly’s 2020 census figure of 1,603,797, the homicide rate works out to 34.92 per 100,000 population, and a couple more increase it only marginally.

The Philadelphia Shooting Victims Dashboard, which claims to be accurate through the end of the year, stated that there had been 2,327 recorded shootings in the City of Brotherly Love, 486 of which were fatal, and 1,841 in which the victim survived. That means that the gang bangers are pretty poor shots, given that only 20.89% of attempted murders by gunfire were successful, but that’s an ‘improvement’ on the 18.44% success rate in 2020.[1]414 homicides by shooting, out of 2,245 total shootings. Yeah, I know: my math is kind of morbid sometimes.

We have previously reported that KSDK, Channel 5, the NBC affiliate station in St Louis, crowed about the Gateway City having reduced its homicide numbers back to “pre-pandemic levels.”

Experts said the 2020 spike in violence was driven largely by the pandemic and high tensions following civil unrest. More lock downs, people losing jobs and strained relationships between communities and law enforcement all led to more murders University of Missouri – St. Louis Criminology Professor Richard Rosenfeld said.

Yet, if it was the COVID-19 pandemic — and I hate the word pandemic — and the killing of George Floyd, then why did shootings increase in Philadelphia by 3.65%, and total homicides by 12.22%?

We noted that the homicide numbers in Philly had increased by 15.61% since it became apparent that Joe Biden had defeated President Trump in the election. Why, it’s almost as though the evil reich wing Mr Trump had nothing to do with the homicide rates!

Philadelphia is still plagued by the same government, of Mayor Jim Kenney, a Democrat, District Attorney Larry Krasner, a George Soros-funded stooge more interested in slapping down the police than prosecuting criminals, and the appropriately-named Police Commissioner, Danielle Outlaw, a bureaucrat appointee of Mr Kenney’s, who couldn’t lead a two-car parade. Philadelphia’s last Republican mayor left office on January 7, 1952, when Harry Truman was President, and George VI was still King of England. It has been three generations since Philly was led by a Republican!

George Floyd died a year and a half ago, and Donald Trump left the White House 348 days ago. The city leadership surrendered to the mob, and the coronavirus panic and shutdowns did not slow down the rate of violent crime in the city.

That was almost two years ago, and since then we’ve had vaccines, no cost vaccines, against the virus, and many — certainly not all in Philly — of the pandemic restrictions lifted, yet the rate of killing in Philly has only increased. At some point, maybe even leftists ought to be asking why the policies of an unbroken for generations Democratic leadership in Philadelphia haven’t worked.
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Updated: 11:55 AM EST

It looks like someone has been trying to update the Current Crime Statistics page, but just isn’t very good at it. It now shows 562 homicides for 2021, which puts the homicide rate above 35, at 35.04 per 100,000 population.

References

References
1 414 homicides by shooting, out of 2,245 total shootings.

High water!

SSG Pico bought tickets for her and me to see the Oakland — never Las Vegas! — Raiders play the Baltimore Indianapolis Colts today, but the one road in or out from our farm is underwater. Our place isn’t in any danger; even the record flood of a guesstimated 41.00-foot crest didn’t get in the house, though it did get in the garage and crawlspace.

But we have sparktricity, propane, food, water and internet, so life is still good.

There has been some flooding damage in Madison County, but we don’t live in Madison.

Thank the Lord for fossil fuels!

During our first winter back in the Bluegrass State, we had only electric heat. When what the Weather Channel called Winter Storm Hunter hit, we lost sparktricity . . . for 4½ days. My wife went to stay with our daughter, in Lexington, but I had to stay on the farm to take care of the critters.

The coldest it got in the house was 38º F!

But it sure wasn’t pleasant. While the water was still on, there was no hot water. There was just enough warm water that first morning to take a quick, sort-of OK shower, but that was it.

Our house is an eastern Kentucky fixer-upper, and the kitchen was the first thing to be redone. Mrs Pico wanted a gas range, and that was planned all along. We knew our electric water heater was near the end of its service life, so we planned on replacing that with gas as well. Then, remembering the unheated house, we decided to add a gas fireplace as well. The fan won’t work without electricity, and while the range top will work, the oven will not.

So, will we lose power again?

It’s a little hard to see the county lines, in the red area, but that’s where we are, kind of in between the Berea and Jackson city names.

At any rate, what my, sadly, late, best friend used to call the Lexington Herald-Liberal is telling me that we’re due for another ice storm. The forecast is a bit iffy: we could get snow as well as freezing rain, probably light tomorrow morning but getting worst Wednesday afternoon.

Alas! Mrs Pico has to work Thursday and Friday, and as a hospital nurse there’s no ‘work from home’ for her. My F-150 does have four-wheel drive, but four-wheel drive works far better in snow than it does on ice; nothing works well on ice. The county has pretreated the road, and while we live in relatively flat river-bottom farmland, there are a couple of not-nice places on the way to the hospital.

At any rate, I have asked William Teach of The Pirate’s Cove to watch this site, in case I’m out of communication for a few days.

He’s out of office now, but #TrumpDerangementSyndrome still rules the minds of so many

Me, snowblowing the front sidewalk in Jim Thorpe, PA, December 29, 2012. Click to enlarge.

When I lived in the Keystone State, my neighbor, Pete, and I used to clear the snow from sidewalks down the entire block. Why? Well, the home to my right was unoccupied for a couple years, and the next two down were occupied by people far more elderly than me. (I was 63 when we moved away.; Pete was in his fifties.)

If it was only a couple of inches of snow, I’d shovel. More than that, and I’d use the snowblower.

I do not know for whom my block neighbors voted. President Trump carried Carbon County in both elections, 65.13% to 31.05% in 2016, and 65.37% to 33.34% in 2020, so the odds are that they voted the right way, but I have no way of knowing for certain. All that I knew, at the time, was that the snow needed to be removed, even though I’m an evil reich-wing conservative, and President Trump was in office my last winter there!.

“Journalist” Virginia Hefferman, however, had a problem with supporters of President Trump being kind to her. Hat tip to William Teach for the article.

Column: What can you do about the Trumpites next door?

By Virginia Heffernan | February 5, 2021 | 3:00 AM PST

Virginia Heffernan

Oh, heck no. The Trumpites next door to our pandemic getaway, who seem as devoted to the ex-president as you can get without being Q fans, just plowed our driveway without being asked and did a great job.

How am I going to resist demands for unity in the face of this act of aggressive niceness?

Of course, on some level, I realize I owe them thanks — and, man, it really looks like the guy back-dragged the driveway like a pro — but how much thanks?

These neighbors are staunch partisans of blue lives, and there aren’t a lot of anything other than white lives in neighborhood.

This is also kind of weird. Back in the city, people don’t sweep other people’s walkways for nothing.

Well, maybe that’s the problem: perhaps Miss Heffernan is so used to the discourtesies of city life, that she just can’t comprehend that life in a small town or rural area is different. One of the verses in Rocky Top goes:

I’ve had years of cramped-up city life
Trapped like a duck in a pen
All I know is it’s a pity life
Can’t be simple again.

When Pete and I took care of our neighbors’ sidewalks, we weren’t asking for money. We just did it because it needed to be done, and we were in better shape than some of the other people living there.

Maybe it’s like what Eddie Murphy discovered in that old “Saturday Night Live” sketch “White Like Me.” He goes undercover in white makeup and finds that when white people are among their own, they pop free champagne and live the high life. As Murphy puts it: “Slowly I began to realize that when white people are alone, they give things to each other. For free.”

Well, one thing about Miss Heffernan’s paragraph is correct: the people for whom we cleaned the sidewalks were all white. Jim Thorpe is 95.7% non-Hispanic white, with another 2.35% Hispanic white. But had any of my neighbors been black, I wouldn’t have somehow just skipped doing their sidewalks and driveways.

Miss Heffernan continues with a few paragraphs about how ‘nice’ Hezbollah are to the people they like, and even how ‘polite’ the Nazis were to people they liked in Occupied France.

So when I accept generosity from my pandemic neighbors, acknowledging the legitimate kindness with a wave or a plate of cookies, am I also sealing us in as fellow travelers who are very polis to each other but not so much to “them”?

Loving your neighbor is evidently much easier when your neighborhood is full of people just like you.

Donald Trump lives on, living rent free in the heads of the left

Really? Her statement assumes that we wouldn’t be polite to neighbors who weren’t just like us.

The other side of my duplex had a sort of checkered history. In 2010, it was bought by a young lesbian couple from Philadelphia, as a vacation home. People who know me know that I strongly believe the Biblical law concerning homosexuality, but, shockingly enough, I didn’t picket their house, I didn’t give them the stink-eye when I saw them, didn’t treat them anything other than politely.[1]On July 4, 2010, I needed to paint the fence between our two yards, something which involved me going into their back yard. When I knocked on the door, to ask permission, with white paint obvious on … Continue reading

What do we do about the Trumpites around us? Like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who spoke eloquently this week about her terrifying experience during the insurrection at the Capitol on Jan. 6, Americans are expected to forgive and forget before we’ve even stitched up our wounds. Or gotten our vaccines against the pandemic that former President Trump utterly failed to mitigate.

Did she mean the “terrifying experience” about which Miss Ocasio-Cortez lied? The one in which she was in an entirely different building?

My neighbors supported a man who showed near-murderous contempt for the majority of Americans. They kept him in business with their support.

But the plowing.

On Jan. 6, after the insurrection, Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) issued an aw-shucks plea for all Americans to love their neighbors. The United States, he said, “isn’t Hatfields and McCoys, this blood feud forever.” And, he added, “You can’t hate someone who shovels your driveway.”

At the time, I seethed; the Capitol had just been desecrated. But maybe my neighbor heard Sasse and was determined to make a bid for reconciliation.

Well, who knows if her neighbors heard what Senator Sasse said? It seems that Miss Heffernan heard it, but really, really, really wants to ignore it.

So here’s my response to my plowed driveway, for now. Politely, but not profusely, I’ll acknowledge the Sassian move. With a wave and a thanks, a minimal start on building back trust. I’m not ready to knock on the door with a covered dish yet.

I also can’t give my neighbors absolution; it’s not mine to give. Free driveway work, as nice as it is, is just not the same currency as justice and truth. To pretend it is would be to lie, and they probably aren’t looking for absolution anyway.

Bitter much? Miss Heffernan’s article was published on February 5th, after President Trump lost his bid for re-election, and after he left office, yet she is still tremendously pissed off that her neighbors supported, and presumably voted for, Mr Trump, so bitter than she cannot just accept a neighborly act as being, well, neighborly!

But I can offer a standing invitation to make amends. Not with a snowplow but by recognizing the truth about the Trump administration and, more important, by working for justice for all those whom the administration harmed. Only when we work shoulder to shoulder to repair the damage of the last four years will we even begin to dig out of this storm.

So, she is considering ‘thanking’ her neighbors by lecturing to them that they were oh-so-wrong to have supported President Trump, and she thinks that will somehow get them to see everything her way, and move into sweetness and light?

It never seems to occur to her that her Trump-supporting neighbors might see the next four years as what will lead to damage, not the previous four.

Her neighbors do something nice for her, and her proposed response is to piss on their legs, but then politely tell them that it’s just raining. Her neighbors just did something nice for her, and she thinks she should take them some nice brownies . . . made with Ex-lax.

Conservatives have called it #TrumpDerangementSyndrome, and Miss Heffernan certainly seems to have it. Donald Trump is gone now, out of office, and unlikely to ever return; even if he wants to run again in 2024, he’ll be 78 years old.

But Mr Trump lives on, living rent free in the heads of the left. The Democrats have gone ahead and impeached a President who is already out of office, and pushing ahead even while knowing that there will not be enough votes to convict him. The Democrats are calling him the first twice-impeached President; it won’t be long before he will be the first twice acquitted President.

References

References
1 On July 4, 2010, I needed to paint the fence between our two yards, something which involved me going into their back yard. When I knocked on the door, to ask permission, with white paint obvious on me, one of them answered, herself holding a roller with red paint. She said, “Well, you have white, I have red, maybe we can go paint Jen blue.” I knew she was joking, as they were but half my age, but I was so surprised that I mumbled something that essentially said no.