The Centers for Disease Control reported, as of August 22, 2021, that of the eligible population in Fayette County, Kentucky, 80.6% had received at least one dose of one of the COVID-19 vaccines, with 68.3% being fully vaccinated. The chart on the right is from Lexington-Fayette Urban County Government, downloaded September 3, 2021. You can click on it to enlarge the image.

So, with such a significant part of the population in the Bluegrass State’s second largest city, wouldn’t you expect COVID-19 cases to be lower than prior to the availability of the vaccines?

300 new cases, 5 new deaths. Lexington’s COVID-19 numbers continue to spike

By Jeremy Chisenhall | Updated: September 2, 2021 | 4:27 PM EDT

Lexington reported five new COVID-19 deaths Thursday, making August the deadliest month for coronavirus since April.

The five deaths all occurred in August but were newly confirmed as being caused by COVID-19. The Lexington-Fayette County Health Department has confirmed a total of 10 coronavirus deaths from August. There were only three deaths in July, four in June and six in May, according to health department data.

The local health department has asked residents to wear a mask in crowded public areas, avoid close contact with people who are sick, cover coughs and sneezes and wash their hands often. The health department advises everyone should follow those guidelines, whether they’re fully vaccinated or not.

Lexington also reported 301 new COVID-19 cases Thursday morning. The city’s rolling average of new cases has jumped up to 232, the highest it’s been since early January.

The chart at the left is from the article, which has free access; it’s not behind the Lexington Herald-Leader’s paywall. You can click on the chart to enlarge it, but this is a screen capture; the one at the original is interactive.

The seven-day rolling average of new cases, on September 1, 2021, was 232, the highest it has been since January, and only four previous weeks, December 6, 2020 (253), November 22, 2020 (244.3), December 13, 2020 (237.6) and January 10, 2021 (242.4), have seen a higher rolling seven day average . . . and all of those weeks were before COVID-19 vaccines were generally available. (A few health care workers began receiving vaccinations in December.)

The death rate from COVID-19 has declined significantly since the vaccines were available, with 14 recorded in August, compared to 12 in each March and April of this year, just as the vaccines started to become available, but 29 in February and the county record of 61 in January. Mr Chisenhall’s story had a graph indicating just 10 COVID-related deaths, but the chart at the right is from the Health Department. I note that, with 14 COVID-related deaths in August of 2021, in which we had no mask mandates, other than in schools, which had just opened at the end of the month, no businesses closed, and no real restrictions on activities, it was one more death than in August of 2020, with similar weather, masks required everywhere, some businesses closed and other of Governor Andy Beshear’s restrictions in place.

There were more than 300 new COVID-19 hospitalizations reported in August, with only two previous months having exceeded 300.

Mr Chisenhall’s report did not tell us what percentage of the new cases, hospitalizations and deaths were among partially or fully vaccinated people, but digging through the Health Department’s charts, the information begins to come together. The hospitalizations chart shows — though, admittedly, not quite ac clearly as it might — that hospitalizations among the non-vaccinated clearly exceed those among vaccinated patients. But that is skewed by the fact that other charts indicate that the number of cases has greatly increased among 5 to 17 year old and 0 to 4 year old patients. Since none of the 0 to 4 year old, and only half of the 5 to 17 year old, groups are even eligible to be vaccinated, those cases will very much skew the breakthrough cases percentages.

The Health Department tell us that, in one of the few charts accompanying the graphs, that in August there were a total of 5337 cases, 3775 of which were among the non-vaccinated and 1562 are ‘breakthrough’ cases among the vaccinated, 29.27%.

But when you eliminate the roughly 220^[1]Even enlarged, the charts are difficult to read; I have done my best in looking at the charts to get the right number, but could be off by a few. cases among the 0 to 4 year old group, none of whom are vaccinated, and half of the cases of the 5 to 17 year old group, to get the 5 to 11 year old group, none of which are eligible to be vaccinated, from total cases, we’re down to 4680 total cases among the vaccine eligible. All of a sudden 1562 ‘breakthrough’ cases among a total of 4680 eligible to have been vaccinated, we see a ‘breakthrough’ case rate of 33.37%.

In other words, one out of three is the actual breakthrough rate in Fayette County.

Vaccination clearly helps, but not at nearly the rate that the advocates claim that it does. Actual numbers published by the Health Department, rather than hard-to-read graphics would help nail the breakthrough percentage down more directly. But, if the full truth were told, there would be plenty of evidence that people should get vaccinated, but that a vaccine mandate should not be imposed.