World War III Watch: Warmongers gotta warmonger, Trudy Rubin edition

It was just Thursday that we noted former National Security Advisor and former Ambassador John Bolton and his criticism of President Donald Trump’s phone call to Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, concerning Russia’s war in Ukraine. That seems to be a constant theme among the ‘neocons.’ They think it’s horrible, just horrible, that Ukraine might lose the war to Russia, and I agree, it’s horrible.

But you know what they don’t tell us? They don’t tell us, they never tell us, how Ukraine can actually win. Continue reading

World War III Watch: Warmongers gotta warmonger!

Like so many of the neoconservatives, former Ambassador John Bolton loves seeing the rivers of blood flow. He tweeted, on Wednesday, February 12th:

It is unconscionable to allow Russia to assault Ukraine’s sovereignty, recruit enemies like North Korea to aid in their fight, and then sell out the Ukrainians by conceding the loss of their territory and NATO security guarantees or membership. By making these and others concessions before negotiations even started, Trump has effectively surrendered to Putin on Ukraine. 1/3 Continue reading

World War III Watch: Joe Biden sends more aid, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants us to send ground troops

We have said it before: it doesn’t matter how much money and military aid we send to Ukraine, they cannot defeat Russia absent the US and NATO sending actual ground troops to fight Russia, and fighter aircraft and pilots to gain air superiority. Now Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants just that:

U.S. announces more Ukraine aid as Zelenskyy calls for NATO to deploy troops to “force Russia into peace”

CBS News | Thursday, January 9, 2024 | 10:00 AM EST

Ramstein Air Base, Germany — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday said Donald Trump’s return to the White House would open “a new chapter” and reiterated a call for Western allies to send troops to help “force Russia to peace.” He made the plea as the Biden administration announced what will likely be its last major military aid package for Ukraine — a promise of weapons and other support worth $500 million. Continue reading

Everybody has lost

As Lord Eddard Stark said in Game of Thrones, “Winter is coming.” Winter across the forests and steppes of Ukraine is bitterly cold and brutal.

Our good friends at The Washington Post have spent the last 1,437 days being wholly supportive of President Joe Biden and every move he has ever made, so when they tell readers that “Russian forces have continued to make gains and maintain the offensive initiative” in Ukraine, you know that it’s serious.

As Ukraine marks Christmas, exhausted soldiers wonder if Trump can end the war

Asked for their thoughts about a potential ceasefire in 2025, Ukrainian soldiers said they’d welcome a reprieve but were skeptical one was coming soon

By Isabelle Khurshudyan and Serhii Korolchuk | Thursday, December 26, 2024 | 2:01 PM EST

DNIPROPETROVSK REGION, Ukraine — Christmas on Ukraine’s front line started, fittingly, in an old barn filled with hay. Soldiers filed in as Lt. Mykola Bagirov, the brigade’s chaplain, began chanting prayers in a setting straight out of a Nativity scene — never mind the M113 armored personnel carriers parked beside him.

Bagirov spent the rest of the day dressed in a colorful jacket and carrying a painted spinning star while merrily singing traditional Ukrainian carols and banging a tambourine against his thigh.

His audience, though thankful for the attempt at holiday cheer, was noticeably less enthused. Continue reading

World War III Watch: the British and French are discussing sending their own troops to fight in Ukraine

Sometimes there are little things hidden inside of more sensationalized stories.

Though we haven’t seen as much about this recently — our American credentialed media were fixated on the election, and Israel’s war against the Palestinians — meaning that the Russo-Ukrainian War has somewhat faded into the background. Stories about foreign soldiers who traveled to Ukraine to fight the Russians? We heard a lot about them early on, though little recently. Yet this headline from the Associated Press might be seen as either misleading, or at least somewhat disingenuous clickbait.

Russia reportedly captures a Briton fighting for Ukraine as Russian troops advance

Monday, November 25, 2024 | 10:09 AM EST

Russia’s military captured a British national fighting with Ukrainian troops who have occupied part of Russia’s Kursk region, according to reports Monday, as Moscow began daylight drone attacks on civilian areas of Ukraine and its ground forces accelerated gains along parts of the front line.

Continue reading

World War III Watch: John Bolton is a blithering idiot!

When I was in college, back in the days of quill pens and inkwells, my best friend, Ken Vermillion and I used to have fanciful and oh-so-educated discussions about nuclear war. We had deterrence down flat, and Mr Vermillion, who sadly left this mortal vale in 2018, could quote his favorite movie, Dr Strangelove, extensively.

We met in 1973, drinking coffee with several other students in the old Student Center cafeteria, speculating whether an underwater nuclear explosion off the coast of California could trigger a tidal wave to hit Los Angeles.

But we were sophomores, and sophomores can discuss stuff like that with both impunity and the knowledge that we’d almost certainly ever be in a position to wage nuclear war.

John Bolton, now 76 years old, is not a sophomore. Having previously held the positions of assistant to the president for national security affairs (APNSA), commonly referred to as the national security advisor, from April 9, 2018 until September 10, 2019, when he was fired resigned, and as Under Secretary of State and Ambassador to the United Nations under the younger President Bush, he has a reputation which gets him all of the good news channel appearances. But, sadly, he’s just an idiot. He tweeted:

This ongoing threat of a “wider war” in Ukraine could be conventional, or it could be nuclear. If it’s a conventional threat, then where is the Russian army that’s going to provoke this war? And if it’s nuclear, it is important to remember that the U.S. has never renounced the first use of nuclear weapons. While these threats should not be entirely disregarded, it’s critical that the U.S. does not fall for Putin’s bluff.

What kind of absolute stupidity is that? Continue reading

World War III Watch: I’m amazed at how many people actually want war!

August of 1914 saw tens of thousands or men marching off to war, amid cheering throngs, knowing that their brave soldiers would be returning home soon, victorious in what would be called the Great World War. The French managed to stall the invading Germans short of Paris, and the armies dug in for what became four bloody years of stalemated trench warfare. On the eastern front, the German army under General Paul von Hindenburg and Erich Ludendorff used brilliant tactics and railroading to first engage and destroy the Imperial Russian Second Army and a few days later, the First Army.

Machine guns made a real appearance on the battlefields, and tanks came later. There were air battles, but the airplanes of the time were few and flimsy, and not able to make the deep bombing runs into enemy territory that were seen twenty years later in World War II. Continue reading

World War III Watch: Will American/NATO weapons be used against North Korean troops inside Russia? With President Biden sinking into dementia, who will take that decision?

This site noted, four days ago, that there were roughly 3,000 North Korean troops ‘undergoing training at military bases in eastern Russia’, and that John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said those troops would become “legitimate military targets” if they should be used in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Now those troops aren’t quite so far away. From The New York Times:

Ukraine Braces for Russians to Assault With North Korean Troops

Several thousand North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia’s western Kursk region, where they are expected to support Moscow’s efforts to dislodge invading Ukrainian forces.

By Constant Méheut | Monday, October 28, 2024 | 10:53 AM EDT

Kyiv — Ukraine is bracing for assaults involving North Korean soldiers who arrived last week in Russia’s western Kursk region, where they are expected to support Moscow’s efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces who invaded in August. Continue reading

World War III Watch: North Korean troops are ‘training’ in Russia

With the presidential election only twelve days away, this story is not getting nearly as much traction as it should have. From The Washington Post:

North Korean troops are in Russia, would be ‘legitimate targets’ in Ukraine, U.S. says

Citing newly declassified intelligence, the Biden administration said that at least 3,000 personnel are undergoing combat training in Russia, though it is unclear if they’ll join the war.

By Dan Lamothe, Missy Ryan, and Michelle Ye Hee Lee | Wednesday, October 23, 2024 | 6:20 AM EDT | Updated: 5:56 PM EDT

The U.S. government has evidence that at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers are in Russia receiving training, senior Biden administration officials said Wednesday, a development they said could have global implications and make those troops “legitimate military targets” in Ukraine should they enter the ongoing war there.

The disclosure, which officials said is based on newly declassified U.S. intelligence, coincides with similar pronouncements in recent days from the governments of Ukraine and South Korea. NATO and the United States had not previously confirmed the North Korean troop movements, and the administration said Washington was doing so now to convey the seriousness with which it views the matter.

“We recognize the potential danger here,” John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, told reporters at the White House. “And we’re going to be talking to allies and partners, including Ukrainians, about what the proper next steps are going to be.”

He emphasized repeatedly that the U.S. government does not yet know for certain that any North Korean soldiers will join the fighting in Ukraine, but he warned there would be consequences if they do.

“If these North Korean troops are employed against Ukraine,” Kirby said, “they will become legitimate military targets.”

That’s a simple statement of fact, but the obvious question becomes: “legitimate military targets” by whom? Representative Mike Turner (R-OH), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said yesterday the US should consider taking “direct military action” if North Korean troops enter the war in Ukraine.

Not just no, but Hell no!

I would not anticipate that, if the story details are accurate, that the troops are undergoing training at military bases in eastern Russia, those troops would enter the war before our election. With winter approaching, the ‘traditional’ seasons for ground troop warfare are ending. The распу́тица, the season of mud, can occur in Ukraine at any time in the autumn that heavy rains fall, to be followed by the hard freezes of winter. I feel confident that, if elected, Donald Trump would not be sending American troops to fight in Ukraine even if elements of the Korean People’s Army Ground Force did join the battle and move into Ukraine, but the possibility exists that Kamala Harris Emhoff will be the one taking that decision.

However, even if the chances that the United States would take “direct military action” are relatively low — though neocons like Bill Kristol, who wants to get the United States involved in every war that comes along, though he never chose to serve when he could have during the latter stages of the war in Vietnam, would push for it — there would be huge pressure on our European NATO allies to send troops to fight in Ukraine.

The Russo-Ukrainian War has mostly been a stalemate for the better part of two years, and I have said it before: Ukraine might be able to hold off the Russians for a while, but they cannot win their war and expel Russia from Ukraine without NATO troops on the ground in direct combat with Russia. If North Korean troops appear on the battlefield, it will be seen as legitimizing the introduction of NATO troops in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine has largely faded in the American conscience, with the real military debate being about the war between Israel and the Islamist terrorists of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the possibility of expansion of that war to Iran. But the war in Ukraine is the one in which the enemy has nuclear weapons, and any move of NATO troops into Ukraine to defend against the Russians, and perhaps North Koreans, brings with it the possibility of Vladimir Putin ordering the use of ‘tactical’ nukes against NATO troop concentrations and supply bases.

This is a very bad thing.
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