William Teach has an article up, WWIII Watch: Former Ukraine President Says They Need Weapons, Sanctions, And NATO Membership:
Well, the US and some EU nations have given them weapons. They’ve invoked sanctions that really aren’t doing much of anything. As for NATO membership, various NATO members have been blocking it for almost a decade, and there are enough to block it now, because that starts WWIII fast. Right now they’re just trying to saunter on up to WWIII. This is Petro Poroshenko, who served as president of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019.
The winning formula for Ukraine is simple: Supplies of weapons, economic sanctions against Russia, helping to strengthen Ukraine’s resilience, the de-Putinization of Russia, and the accession of Ukraine to the European Union and NATO. Only all the elements of this formula combined would guarantee permanent security for Europe and the whole world.
Napoleon is credited with once saying that to wage war, he needed three things: first, money; second, money; and third, money. Money is the fuel that powers the deadly military machine of Russia that kills Ukrainians. To bring this machine to a stop it will take more than military action. There must be powerful financial punches—indeed an economic crisis—and even social upheaval.
The price for aggression must constantly rise, becoming ever more unbearable. This is the way to change the Russian bear’s behavior, drive it backwards, and spoil its appetite. Putin cannot be stopped by half-steps and half-measures. He will always look for gaps, loopholes, and allies of convenience.
I’ll admit it: I’ve kind of stolen borrowed Mr Teach’s title and the illustration he used. There’s more at his site. But then came this, from The New York Times:
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken says Washington has indications that Beijing is strongly considering giving military aid to Moscow for the war in Ukraine.
by Edward Wong | Sunday, February 19, 2023 | Updated 6:29 PM EST
MADRID — When the top foreign policy officials from the United States and China appeared this weekend at Europe’s premier global security conference, both stressed that their governments were not seeking a new Cold War.
Yet, new warnings by U.S. officials that China may be preparing to give weapons and ammunition to Russia for its war on Ukraine portend the worst of the old Cold War.
In that decades-long shadow struggle, the United States, the Soviet Union and occasionally China poured military resources into protracted wars around the globe, engaging in bloody proxy conflicts from Korea to Vietnam to Afghanistan.
American officials say that China, unlike Iran and North Korea, has over the year of the war in Ukraine refrained from giving material aid to Russia. President Biden has stressed to Xi Jinping, China’s leader, that any such move would have far-reaching consequences.
There is no doubt that China’s entry into the war in that manner would transform the nature of the conflict, turning it into an epochal struggle involving all three of the world’s largest superpowers and their partners on opposing sides: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea aligned against the United States, Ukraine and their European and Asian allies and partners, including Japan and South Korea.
Warnings to China from Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state — made in multiple settings on Saturday and Sunday, including on television — revealed that the Biden administration believes Beijing is close to crossing the line. And the fact Mr. Blinken spoke out publicly shows the desperation of the United States as it tries to dissuade Mr. Xi and his aides from doing so.
Officials in Washington and European capitals, including here in Madrid, one of the staunchest aid providers to Kyiv, say that they are bracing for a new Russian offensive in Ukraine this spring, and that they need to do everything they can this winter to blunt Russia’s chances of breaking through Ukrainian defenses.
There’s more at the original, but the whole idea of the United States and NATO giving more money and war materiel assistance to Ukraine seems to fall apart if China is going to do the same for Russia.
Ukraine has already suffered major housing, industrial, and infrastructure damage; if NATO keeps pouring supplies into Ukraine, and China starts shipping war supplies to Russia, what can this yield but even more devastation for that benighted country? It could, I suppose, actually reduce the probability of Russia crossing the nuclear threshold, something that could be considered if NATO supplies were actually giving Ukraine an advantage; I doubt — but of, course, do not know — that Vladimir Putin would use ‘tactical’ or ‘battlefield’ nuclear weapons against Ukrainian troop concentrations or supply bases if the war was not going that badly for Russia; crossing the nuclear threshold would be a desperation move if Russia was clearly losing the war, something at least possible given Russia’s unexpectedly poor performance militarily, and a Ukraine being propped up by NATO supplies.
If China counterbalances that with war materiel supplies to Russia, it could keep Russia from reaching a desperation point, but it would also seem to prolong the war without any decision. Given that the war is being fought on Ukrainian soil, that’s where the damage will be.
Patrick Frey, the Los Angeles County Assistant District Attorney who runs the blog Patterico’s Pontifications, the site which inspired me to get into blogging, is a very strong supporter of Ukraine and NATO assistance to Ukraine in its war against the Russian invasion: