World War III Watch: Britain goes all out neocon

Prussian Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke the Elder wrote, “No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength,” which is frequently bastardized as “No plan survives contact with the enemy.” I’m old enough to remember when debates in the United States were all about matching the Soviets in warheads, weapons, and delivery systems. The impetus was less deterrence than it was being able to fight the USSR on the European battlefield. It all made sense, if you thought a nuclear war was a winnable thing. It was as though we could actually plan out a war that included using nuclear weapons, and somehow emerge victorious.

We have used nuclear weapons in war, and emerged victorious, but that is because the enemy didn’t have them, and because his plan to knock out the American fleet at Pearl Harbor did not survive first contact with the enemy. Yes, the Japanese attack sank four battleships and seriously damaged four more, also sinking or damaging three cruisers, three destroyers, an anti-aircraft training ship, and a minelayer. There were no aircraft carriers in port, and the wrath of our country was raised, and our industrial might undamaged.

Now, with Donald Trump having won the 2024 election, and his great reticence to get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian War, our European allies in NATO are revisiting notions of, as Major Kong put it, “Nuclear combat, toe-to-toe with the Russkies.”

Dropping tactical nuclear weapons was a major strategic error. We must correct it

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World War III Watch: It could still happen if people get stupid

It was only a couple of days ago that the democratic West was buoyed by Ukraine’s deep strikes into Russia. From The Washington Post:

Ukraine’s drones disrupt Russia with airport closures, internet blackouts

As Ukrainian drones strike deep into Russian territory, they are disrupting day-to-day life and reminding Russians that the war is not confined to the trenches.

by Mary Ilyushina | Memorial Day, May 26, 2025

Large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks have rattled multiple Russian regions for the third consecutive day, grounding flights, disrupting internet access and stretching the country’s air defense systems thin. Continue reading

World War III Watch: Can one of the chest-thumping neocons tell me how they intend to actually win the wars they are pushing?

Elwood P Dowd is one of the liberal commenters on my good friend William Teach’s The Pirate’s Cove. The distinguished Mr Dowd is a Democrat and true hater of President Trump, and every so often, he gets me rolling in my response. He wrote:

If Trump abandons Ukraine to Putin, the Baltics are likely to be at risk. Do you believe King Donald would risk anything to help NATO defend Latvia? LOL.

Kind of a throwaway ending to a longer comment on a completely different subject, but that was the part to which I had to respond.

In 1939, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Republic of France gave an unconditional guarantee to Poland that they would defend the Poles’ independence. Two days after the Nazis invaded, the UK and France declared war on Germany, but not a single British or French soldier, sailor, airman, or Marine ever fought in Poland to defend the country from the Third Reich! If der Führer hadn’t been stupid and invaded the USSR, it’s quite possible that the Nazis would still be in control of Poland, and all of Europe. Continue reading

World War III Watch: Comment rescue: Patterico’s Pontifications

The tactic was well used by the late Senator Joe McCarthy, to let everyone know that if you disagreed with him, you were a Communist.

I participated in the Weekend Open Thread on Patterico’s Pontifications, knowing in advance that if my comments were published, I’d be running into a buzz saw of opposition. The host, Los Angeles County prosecutor Patrick Frey, a conservative who has mostly withdrawn from the blog, leaving it up to a much nicer and better-looking Dana than me, is nevertheless a dedicated #NeverTrumper, as are the majority of commenters, a majority of whom also wholeheartedly support helping Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders. The commenters there are mostly well-educated, and many are lawyers, but it’s clear that many — certainly not all — view opposition to the kind of aid provided by former President Joe Biden is wholly unappreciated. Continue reading

World War III Watch: Why can’t those who want to continue the war in Ukraine ever propose a way for Ukraine to actually win?

There are times I worry that I am sounding like a broken record on the subject of Ukraine, but, checking Bluesky Monday morning — I check Bluesky so you don’t have to — I saw this skeet from The Philadelphia Inquirer’s furthest leftward columnist, Will Bunch, promoting neoconservative columnist Trudy Rubin’s latest:

After three years of war in Ukraine, a Trump-backed ‘Russian peace’ would spell disaster

Leaders who still believe in democracy — not only Europeans, but also Japan and South Korea — must ensure that Putin cannot destroy Ukraine.

by Trudy Rubin | Monday, February 24, 2025 | 6:00 AM EST

BERLIN — Today, on the third anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, it is clear who should win the 2025 Nobel Peace prize.

I do not know if Mrs Rubin or an editor wrote that headline, but the war in Ukraine is already a disaster. Continue reading

World War III Watch: Warmongers gotta warmonger!

Like so many of the neoconservatives, former Ambassador John Bolton loves seeing the rivers of blood flow. He tweeted, on Wednesday, February 12th:

It is unconscionable to allow Russia to assault Ukraine’s sovereignty, recruit enemies like North Korea to aid in their fight, and then sell out the Ukrainians by conceding the loss of their territory and NATO security guarantees or membership. By making these and others concessions before negotiations even started, Trump has effectively surrendered to Putin on Ukraine. 1/3 Continue reading

World War III Watch: Joe Biden sends more aid, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants us to send ground troops

We have said it before: it doesn’t matter how much money and military aid we send to Ukraine, they cannot defeat Russia absent the US and NATO sending actual ground troops to fight Russia, and fighter aircraft and pilots to gain air superiority. Now Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants just that:

U.S. announces more Ukraine aid as Zelenskyy calls for NATO to deploy troops to “force Russia into peace”

CBS News | Thursday, January 9, 2024 | 10:00 AM EST

Ramstein Air Base, Germany — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday said Donald Trump’s return to the White House would open “a new chapter” and reiterated a call for Western allies to send troops to help “force Russia to peace.” He made the plea as the Biden administration announced what will likely be its last major military aid package for Ukraine — a promise of weapons and other support worth $500 million. Continue reading

World War III Watch: the British and French are discussing sending their own troops to fight in Ukraine

Sometimes there are little things hidden inside of more sensationalized stories.

Though we haven’t seen as much about this recently — our American credentialed media were fixated on the election, and Israel’s war against the Palestinians — meaning that the Russo-Ukrainian War has somewhat faded into the background. Stories about foreign soldiers who traveled to Ukraine to fight the Russians? We heard a lot about them early on, though little recently. Yet this headline from the Associated Press might be seen as either misleading, or at least somewhat disingenuous clickbait.

Russia reportedly captures a Briton fighting for Ukraine as Russian troops advance

Monday, November 25, 2024 | 10:09 AM EST

Russia’s military captured a British national fighting with Ukrainian troops who have occupied part of Russia’s Kursk region, according to reports Monday, as Moscow began daylight drone attacks on civilian areas of Ukraine and its ground forces accelerated gains along parts of the front line.

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World War III Watch: John Bolton is a blithering idiot!

When I was in college, back in the days of quill pens and inkwells, my best friend, Ken Vermillion and I used to have fanciful and oh-so-educated discussions about nuclear war. We had deterrence down flat, and Mr Vermillion, who sadly left this mortal vale in 2018, could quote his favorite movie, Dr Strangelove, extensively.

We met in 1973, drinking coffee with several other students in the old Student Center cafeteria, speculating whether an underwater nuclear explosion off the coast of California could trigger a tidal wave to hit Los Angeles.

But we were sophomores, and sophomores can discuss stuff like that with both impunity and the knowledge that we’d almost certainly ever be in a position to wage nuclear war.

John Bolton, now 76 years old, is not a sophomore. Having previously held the positions of assistant to the president for national security affairs (APNSA), commonly referred to as the national security advisor, from April 9, 2018 until September 10, 2019, when he was fired resigned, and as Under Secretary of State and Ambassador to the United Nations under the younger President Bush, he has a reputation which gets him all of the good news channel appearances. But, sadly, he’s just an idiot. He tweeted:

This ongoing threat of a “wider war” in Ukraine could be conventional, or it could be nuclear. If it’s a conventional threat, then where is the Russian army that’s going to provoke this war? And if it’s nuclear, it is important to remember that the U.S. has never renounced the first use of nuclear weapons. While these threats should not be entirely disregarded, it’s critical that the U.S. does not fall for Putin’s bluff.

What kind of absolute stupidity is that? Continue reading