Tag Archives: #Bidenomics

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Bidenflation How many of those 81,283,501 people who voted for Joe Biden would have done so if they'd known they'd be five percent poorer in two years?

You may have heard the supposedly good news: the year-over-year inflation rate declined to 7.1%:

Consumer prices rose last month at the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021, closing out a year in which inflation hit the highest level in four decades and challenged the Federal Reserve’s ability to keep the U.S. economy on track.

The Labor Department on Tuesday said that its consumer-price index, a measurement of what consumers pay for goods and services, climbed 7.1% in November from a year ago, down sharply from 7.7% in October. The pace built on a trend of moderating price increases since June’s 9.1% peak, but it remained well above the 2.1% average rate in the three years before the pandemic.

There’s a lot more in The Wall Street Journal’s original.

Of course, the inflation rate only makes sense when compared to earnings. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table B-3, average private sector hourly earnings increased from $31.23 in November of 2021 to $32.64, a 5.09% increase, while average weekly earnings moved from $1,086.80 to $1,129.01, which was only a 3.88% increase. Compared to hourly wages, the average American worker is 2.01% poorer, in real terms, than he was in November of 2021; compared to average weekly earnings, he’s 3.22% poorer.

That isn’t the whole story. From November of 2020 to November of 2021, Table B-3 Historical Tables, average wages increased from $29.95 to $31.23, a 4.27% increase, while average weekly earnings went from $1,031.82 to $1,086.80, a 5.33% rise. Remember: this was moving from a COVID-19 restricted economy to one where almost all of the restrictions had been removed. But the November 2021 year-over-year inflation rate was 6.8%.

So, not only was the average American worker 3.22% poorer in November of 2022 than he was a year earlier, that’s on top of being 1.47% poorer, in real terms, the previous year. Due to the compounding effect of the math, average consumer prices were 14.38% higher in November of 2022 than in November of 2020,[1]1.068 x 1.071 = 1.1438 while average weekly earnings were 9.42% higher. That’s a loss of real earning power of 4.96%.

I wonder how many of those 81,283,501 people who voted for Joe Biden in November of 2020 would have done so if they’d known they’d be five percent poorer in two years.

And it’s going to get worse:

The figures leave the Fed on track to lift interest rates by 0.5 percentage point on Wednesday, following larger increases of 0.75 point at their past four meetings.

So, while economists anticipate home prices to start to fall, as demand is lowered due to higher interest rates, that does not mean that rent prices will fall. If the demand for buying homes declines, the demand for rental property necessarily increases, and that means higher rents. Rent increases for existing tenants normally occur just once a year, but rental increases for people moving during the year can and do occur at any time.

In 1849, Scottish writer Thomas Carlyle called economics the dismal science, and in a lot of ways, he was right. Economic reduces things to numbers, and a lot of people don’t like that, but it doesn’t mean that the numbers aren’t true.

The numbers I gave were averages, and I’m sure that many of the 81,283,501 Biden voters have managed to weather the inflation of the past two years reasonably well. But for every Biden voter who hasn’t had a problem with inflation, there’s another who has had Bidenflation eat up more of his earnings than the average. For every Biden voter who hasn’t seen any appreciable loss of economic well-being, there’s another who is worse off than the already-depressing averages.

References

References
↑1 1.068 x 1.071 = 1.1438
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Bidenomics: you are poorer in real terms, and your retirement plan is worth less Are you better off today than two years ago?

Due to taking Staff Sergeant Pico to her reassigned Army Reserve unit in advance of her deployment to Kuwait, Mrs Pico and I spent a few days in William Teach’s home state of North Carolina. When we fueled up in Kentucky, last Tuesday, before leaving, gasoline was $3.779. Naturally, I noticed that gasoline prices were higher in the states through which we traveled, West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina, but not being familiar with fuel taxes in those great states, I didn’t pay very much attention.

Until yesterday, that is, as gasoline prices are now around $4.299 back in the Bluegrass State! Continue reading →

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Bidenomics! Americans are 2.5% poorer than they were 12 months ago.

The inflation numbers are out, and they’re ugly!

We have previously noted the January, 7.5%, and February, 7.9%, year-over-year inflation rates, and the March figure was released this morning.

8.5%.

From The Wall Street Journal:

    U.S. Inflation Hit Four-Decade High in March

    Consumer-price index rose 8.5% from year earlier, driven by skyrocketing energy and food costs

    by Gwynn Guilford | Tuesday, April 12, 2022 | 8:45 AM EDT

    U.S. inflation rose to a new four-decade peak of 8.5% in March from the same month a year ago, driven by skyrocketing energy and food costs, supply constraints and strong consumer demand.

    The Labor Department on Tuesday said the consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for goods and services—in March rose at its fastest annual pace since December 1981, when it was on a recession-induced downswing after the Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy. That marks the sixth straight month for inflation above 6% and put it above February’s 7.9% annual rate–well above the Federal Reserve’s target.

    The so-called core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, increased 6.5% in March from a year earlier—up from February’s 6.4% rise, and sharpest 12-month rise since August 1982.

    On a monthly basis, the CPI accelerated at a seasonally adjusted 1.2% last month, from 0.8% in February, and the fastest one-month increase since 2005.

I understand that government bureaucrats don’t like dealing with “often-volatile” data, but I have yet to understand why “the often-volatile categories of food and energy” are excluded from the core CPI; it’s not as though consumers don’t have to pay for food and energy, every single month.

How often do you buy a refrigerator or a washing machine? How often do you buy even small appliances like toasters or kitchen blenders? Not often, I’d guess, but we’ve been to Kroger a few times already this month.

After several paragraphs telling us why prices are increasing so fast, we get to this:

    “There’s an element of sticker shock when people go to fill up their tank or go to the grocery store. Lower- and middle-income households are already having to make choices about what to buy because they’re having to pay so much more for food and energy,” (Richard F. Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp) said.

Which led to this:

    Solid demand for labor has shifted bargaining power toward workers, putting upward pressure on wages, which could feed into broader price gains. Annual wage growth was 6% in March, the fastest pace since records began in 1997, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s wage tracker.

    Still, wages for most are growing too slowly to offset inflation. This could push workers to demand higher wages, creating a feedback loop that puts upward pressure on inflation.

When inflation is at 8.5%, while annual wage growth was 6.0%, consumers have become automatically poorer in real terms, 2.5% poorer. But hey, this is for what 81,268,924 Americans voted!

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#Bidenomics! Inflation has tripled under Joe Biden Remember: the data used were prior to the latest surge in fuel prices

From Trading Economics:

Annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 7.9% in February of 2022, the highest since January of 1982, matching market expectations. Energy remained the biggest contributor (25.6% vs 27% in January), with gasoline prices surging 38% (40% in January). Inflation accelerated for shelter (4.7% vs 4.4%); food (7.9% vs 7%, the largest since July of 1981), namely food at home (8.6% vs 7.4%); new vehicles (12.4% vs 12.2%); and used cars and trucks (41.2% vs 40.5%). Excluding volatile energy and food categories, the CPI rose 6.4%, the most in 40 years. Still, the biggest effects of the war in Ukraine and the consequent surge in energy costs are still to come and will worsen with the US ban on oil imports from Russia. The inflation was seen peaking in March but the recent developments in Europe coupled with the ongoing supply constraints, strong demand and labour shortages will likely maintain inflation elevated for longer. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

It’s the “excluding volatile energy and food categories, the CPI rose 6.4%” part that gets me: it’s still winter — and my area is forecast to get 3 to 6 inches of snow on Saturday — so energy, volatile or otherwise, is a major concern for everybody, and we can’t live very long without food.


Chart source: tradingeconomics.com

You know what I note: the year-over-year inflation rate was 2.6% in February of 2021, Joe Biden’s first full month in office, and then BAM! up it jumps, more than doubling by June, and now it’s tripled.

Then there’s this, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.8 percent from January to February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from essentially no change in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.8 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.5 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the average workweek.

Real average hourly earnings decreased 2.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, from February 2021 to February 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 2.3-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

Production and nonsupervisory employees means the working class:

Production and nonsupervisory employees

Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees decreased 0.6 percent from January to February, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from a 0.3-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.9 percent in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.3 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings being combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in average weekly hours.

From February 2021 to February 2022, real average hourly earnings decreased 1.9 percent, seasonally adjusted. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek resulted in a 1.9-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

Remember: this inflation has been going on since long before Vladimir Vladimirovich sent the tanks rolling into Ukraine! It has been going on since the dummkopf from Delaware took office. Here’s the five-year chart, also from Trading Economics:

Note that the year-over-year monthly inflation rate never reached even 3% during Donald Trump’s entire presidency, but reached 4.2% in April of 2021, and has been elevated ever since. It cratered during the COVID-19 lockouts, recovered several months later, but was still below 2.0% on Election Day, and below 2.0% when Mr Biden took office.

Then it skyrocketed!

What did we have? We had an economy which had made a significant recovery in the latter half of 2020, after the stupid lockdowns were (mostly) lifted, but before any of the COVID-19 vaccines were available to the general public. The vaccines became available to health care workers in December, and then in January and February were made available in the ‘tiers’ structure. By March, the vaccines became much more widely available, and COVID-19 cases were dropping. Everything good that could have helped President Biden — and I still shudder when I type that! — happened, yet people started to become poorer in real terms due to inflation.

Not everything economic is under the government’s control, but it certainly is interesting how real earnings have decreased under Mr Biden, and inflation skyrocketed almost immediately after he came into office. But it’s true: we aren’t suffering through any more of those mean tweets!

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Bidenflation If inflation was 'only' 7.5%, what items went up less than that to counterbalance those which increased more?

We recently reported on the price of a gallon of milk in the Bluegrass State, and how it had increased 121.21% since President Trump left office. Grocery prices in general have risen. We also noted that January inflation, year-over-year, rose 7.5%, which was higher than the average hourly wage increase of 5.7%. Two days ago, I tweeted that regular gasoline had jumped 20¢ per gallon.

Now comes The Philadelphia Inquirer:

Utility bills are soaring in the Philly region and so is customer outrage

Peco gas bills are up 38% from last year. PGW’s are up 17%. “I have never paid this much for heat in the winter.”

by Andrew Maykuth | Sunday, February 27, 2022

Also see: Pa. electricity prices will be rising by as much as 50% this week. Here’s how you can save.

Byron Goldstein closely monitors the energy usage at his Glenside home. So when he got a $651 bill from Peco Energy for combined electric and gas usage in January, 37% more than the $477 he paid the previous January, he knew something was off.

Goldstein discovered that Peco’s gas supply charge skyrocketed since January 2021, accounting for most of the increase. Goldstein, 74, was unsatisfied by the company’s response to his phone calls, so he filed a formal complaint to the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, urging the state regulator to roll back Peco’s “outrageous and irresponsible” price increase.

He was not alone. Across the Philadelphia area, thousands of utility customers opened their bills in recent weeks to learn that the cost of heating their homes had soared much more than the 7% inflation rate. Social media platforms lit up with posts from unhappy customers, directing their wrath at energy companies, regulators, and politicians.

“I have never paid this much for heat in the winter,” wrote a Philadelphia resident posting on Nextdoor.com, where several threads contained hundreds of comments venting about the price increase.

There’s more at the original, but it needs to be noted: these price increases came before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

According to charts in the Inquirer original, natural; gas prices are actually significantly lower now than they were in 2008, but they’ve jumped significantly this winter:

The price has indeed gone up: A typical Peco customer who used 150 hundred cubic feet (ccf) of gas was billed $171.25 in January, up 38% or $46.90 from January 2021, according to PUC data. A Philadelphia Gas Works customer who used the same amount of gas was billed $261.71 in January, up 17% or $37.91 from a year ago.

Electricity bills also went up in Pennsylvania on Dec. 1, though not as much as gas bills.

With price increases like these, just how real does that reported 7.5% inflation rate feel?

The Inquirer reported, last December, that cable television and internet service rates from Comcast have increased, as have prices from AT&T and SlingTV.

The Wall Street Journal reported that NBC had a 42% drop in viewership for the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, compared to the 2018 games in Pyeongchang, South Korea, something I attribute to NBC’s ‘free’ coverage being dominated by curling and other lower-interest events, while the events people are most interested in, ice skating and Alpine skiing, were being shown more often on Peacock, an internet streaming service which, naturally, has a subscriber fee. That’s just more money out of people’s pockets, or they miss out, a form of inflation that goes unaccounted.

The obvious question, at least to me, is: if inflation was ‘only’ 7.5%, what items went up less than that to counterbalance those which increased more?

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Bidenflation! The price of a gallon of milk has increased 121.21% since Joe Biden became President

Photo by Dana R. Pico, © January 4, 2022. Free use is granted, with appropriate credit. Click to enlarge.

In 2020, back when Donald Trump was President of the United States, a gallon of milk at the Kroger on Bypass Road in Richmond, Kentucky, was 99¢ per gallon. In 2021, the price had increased to $1.29 per gallon, in the same store.

Then, on January 4, 2022, I took a photo of the increased price, to $1.79 per gallon, and posted it on Twitter. That was a pretty big jump, 38.76%, but I at least hoped that the price would remain stable.

Photo by Dana R. Pico, © February 23, 2022. Free use is granted, with appropriate credit. Click to enlarge.

Well, I might have hoped that, but my hopes have been quickly dashed; a gallon of 1% milk, at the same store, even in the same dairy case, is now $2.19 per gallon, a 22.35% increase in 50 days! Milk has risen, in the same store, 121.21% since the end of 2020, since the end of President Trump’s term, since Joe Biden has moved into the White House.

121.21%!

We had previously noted that the January year-over-year inflation rate was 7.5%, higher than economists’ guesstimates, the highest in 40 years, and higher than the average hourly wage increase of 5.7%.

It’s one thing to see that statistics printed in The Wall Street Journal, and something entirely different to see them, in yellow and red cardboard signs, as you are reaching in to buy a gallon of milk.

The average working stiff might not read The Washington Post, might not pay attention to the statistics as given on finger-blackening newsprint or a flickering monitor screen, but he’s likely to have noticed how everything has gotten more expensive.

On September 16, 2016, Heather Long, then with CNN, published “Problem: Most Americans don’t believe the unemployment rate is 5%,” noting that, despite the ‘official’ U-3 unemployment rate, people believed that unemployment was much higher, around 9% or more, which I pointed out was close to the U-6 unemployment rate at the time. And no matter what the official ‘numbers’ are, when a gallon of milk has gone up 121.21% in just over a year, inflation certainly feels higher than 5.7%