Annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 7.9% in February of 2022, the highest since January of 1982, matching market expectations. Energy remained the biggest contributor (25.6% vs 27% in January), with gasoline prices surging 38% (40% in January). Inflation accelerated for shelter (4.7% vs 4.4%); food (7.9% vs 7%, the largest since July of 1981), namely food at home (8.6% vs 7.4%); new vehicles (12.4% vs 12.2%); and used cars and trucks (41.2% vs 40.5%). Excluding volatile energy and food categories, the CPI rose 6.4%, the most in 40 years. Still, the biggest effects of the war in Ukraine and the consequent surge in energy costs are still to come and will worsen with the US ban on oil imports from Russia. The inflation was seen peaking in March but the recent developments in Europe coupled with the ongoing supply constraints, strong demand and labour shortages will likely maintain inflation elevated for longer. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
It’s the “excluding volatile energy and food categories, the CPI rose 6.4%” part that gets me: it’s still winter — and my area is forecast to get 3 to 6 inches of snow on Saturday — so energy, volatile or otherwise, is a major concern for everybody, and we can’t live very long without food.
Chart source: tradingeconomics.com
You know what I note: the year-over-year inflation rate was 2.6% in February of 2021, Joe Biden’s first full month in office, and then BAM! up it jumps, more than doubling by June, and now it’s tripled.
Then there’s this, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.8 percent from January to February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from essentially no change in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.8 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.5 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the average workweek.
Real average hourly earnings decreased 2.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, from February 2021 to February 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 2.3-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.
Production and nonsupervisory employees means the working class:
Production and nonsupervisory employees
Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees decreased 0.6 percent from January to February, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from a 0.3-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.9 percent in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.3 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings being combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in average weekly hours.
From February 2021 to February 2022, real average hourly earnings decreased 1.9 percent, seasonally adjusted. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek resulted in a 1.9-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.
Remember: this inflation has been going on since long before Vladimir Vladimirovich sent the tanks rolling into Ukraine! It has been going on since the dummkopf from Delaware took office. Here’s the five-year chart, also from Trading Economics:
Note that the year-over-year monthly inflation rate never reached even 3% during Donald Trump’s entire presidency, but reached 4.2% in April of 2021, and has been elevated ever since. It cratered during the COVID-19 lockouts, recovered several months later, but was still below 2.0% on Election Day, and below 2.0% when Mr Biden took office.
Then it skyrocketed!
What did we have? We had an economy which had made a significant recovery in the latter half of 2020, after the stupid lockdowns were (mostly) lifted, but before any of the COVID-19 vaccines were available to the general public. The vaccines became available to health care workers in December, and then in January and February were made available in the ‘tiers’ structure. By March, the vaccines became much more widely available, and COVID-19 cases were dropping. Everything good that could have helped President Biden — and I still shudder when I type that! — happened, yet people started to become poorer in real terms due to inflation.
Not everything economic is under the government’s control, but it certainly is interesting how real earnings have decreased under Mr Biden, and inflation skyrocketed almost immediately after he came into office. But it’s true: we aren’t suffering through any more of those mean tweets!