We recently noted the statistics provided by the Fayette County, Kentucky, Health Department regarding COVID-19 cases in the Bluegrass State’s second most populous county. The Health Department tell us that, in one of the few charts accompanying the graphs, that in August there were a total of 5337 cases, 3746 of which were among the non-vaccinated and 1708 are ‘breakthrough’ cases among the vaccinated, 31.3%.

The population of Fayette County is 323,200, and the total fully vaccinated population is 189,750. Those numbers are important, and I’ll come back to them later. From The New York Times:

One in 5,000

The real chances of a breakthrough infection.

by David Leonhardt | September 7, 2021

The C.D.C. reported a terrifying fact in July: Vaccinated people with the Delta variant of the Covid virus carried roughly the same viral load in their noses and throats as unvaccinated people.

The news seemed to suggest that even the vaccinated were highly vulnerable to getting infected and passing the virus to others. Sure enough, stories about vaccinated people getting Covid — so-called breakthrough infections — were all around this summer: at a party in Provincetown, Mass.; among the Chicago Cubs; on Capitol Hill. Delta seemed as if it might be changing everything.

In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.

How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.

There’s more at the original, but note the specified risk: one in 5,000 per day. It’s that ‘per day’ factor that needs to be noted.

August has 31 days, and there were, according to the Fayette County Health Department, 1,708 cases of COVID-19 classified as ‘breakthrough’ cases, occurring among the fully vaccinated. Doing the math, 1705 cases divided by 189,750 vaccinated people yields an incidence of 0.900% of the vaccinated population contracting COVID-19 over a 31 day period. Divide that by 31, and the rate becomes 0.0290% per day. One out of 5,000 works out to 0.02%, so the Fayette County rate isn’t terribly out of line.

But let’s do the unvaccinated population as well. 3,746 COVID-19 cases out of 133,450 unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people yields a rate of 2.807% over the 31 days of August. Divided by 31 again, that comes out to a 0.0905% per day, 3.121 times that for the fully vaccinated, and not even a thousand to one chance that an unvaccinated person will contract the virus on any given day.

Yes, it makes sense to get the vaccine, because it cuts the chances that if you do contract the virus, you’ll actually get sick. But that raises an obvious question: if the vaccine helps keep those who contract the virus from getting sick, or as sick, as those who have not been vaccinated, are the asymptomatic but vaccinated population being tested at significantly lower rates?

If you’ve ever had a COVID-19 test, you already know: it’s not much fun having a nurse stick a swab all the way up your nose and into your sinuses. So, if you are completely asymptomatic, and you have a choice, why would you ever volunteer for that test?

There are two problems here:

1. We do not know the real percentage of the fully vaccinated to contract the virus; and
2. The numbers we do have are being politicized to death.

When The New York Times runs a headline, “One in 5,000: The real chances of a breakthrough infection,” and you have to read down to the end of the fourth paragraph to find out that number is per day, you are seeing propaganda, you are seeing politicized numbers.

Yes, I believe that getting vaccinated is the smarter thing to do, but am very much opposed to vaccine mandates or vaccine passports. But trying to make cases for vaccination by using politicized numbers only makes your case weaker when someone, someone like me, spots what has been done to politicize the numbers.