Homicides have been down in the City of Brotherly Love, with a pace below that of 2022, which ended the year with 516 murders, and 2021, which holds the record-shattering 562 killings. but ahead of 2020, in which there were 499 homicides. 2020 remains a special case, with population lockdowns, and the death in police custody of the methamphetamine-and-fentanyl addled George Floyd, a death which occurred after March 30^th, which led to a significant amount of civic unrest, demonstrations, riots, and killings.

2020 was also the year of the Census, and the Census found that Philadelphia has 1,603,797 residents, dating such on April Fool’s Day. Subsequent annual Census Bureau estimates are dated on July 1^st. The Census Bureau estimated Philly’s population to be 1,576,251 as of July 1, 2021, according to their website, but The Philadelphia Inquirer is telling us that their guesstimate was higher, at 1,589,480.

That skews the math, but the more important math is how Philly’s population have declined since the Census. The Census, dated April 1, 2020, shows the city with 1,603,797 residents, which was down to 1,567,258 as of the beginning of July, 2022.  That’s a loss of 36,539 souls.

As of March 31, 2020, there had been 96 murders recorded in Philly; on June 30, 2022, there were 257 recorded killings in the city. That works out to 1,222 homicides over that period of time, or 3.34% of the city’s population loss!

Philly’s population dropped for a second year in a row, census data show

Experts caution two years does not a trend make.

by Ximena Conde and John Duchneskie | Thursday, March 30, 2023 | 5:09 AM EDT

In Philadelphia, it’s feeling a bit like 2014 — at least when it comes to the population count. That’s the last time the city had about 1.57 million residents.

2014 was also the last year the city had fewer than 250 homicides, 248 to be precise, following 246 the previous year. That was when Michael Nutter was Mayor, Seth Williams was District Attorney, and Charles Ramsey was Police Commissioner. Though the number spiked to 280 in 2015, Messrs Nutter’s and Ramsey’s last years in office, homicides spiked under Mr Nutter’s successor, Jim Kenney.

Newly released census estimates say Philly lost more than 22,000 residents between July 2021 and July 2022, a 1.4% drop and the largest one-year decline since 1977, which saw a loss of about 23,800.

I suppose that this depends on what number you use for 2021, given that the Census Bureau has obviously provided two. Perhaps the Bureau simply hasn’t updated their website.

The drop is the second in a row, after more than a decade of growth for the city, which peaked at 1.6 million residents in 2020. Between 2020 and 2022, it’s estimated the city lost more than 33,000 residents.

Various factors have been blamed for the drop, mainly the COVID-19 pandemic, but experts say Philadelphia isn’t on its way to becoming a ghost town, and suggest not panicking over short-term data.

I’m not sure how the blame could be “mainly the COVID-19 pandemic,” given that the article time frame begins on July 1, 2021, when yes, the city was laboring under the restrictions imposed by Mayor Kenney, which were harsher than most places, but the panicdemic — and no, that isn’t a typographical error; panicdemic is exactly how I see it — without mentioning the huge number of murders in the city. One of the writers, John Duchneskie, is the Inky’s Graphics Editor, who says his job is “wrangling data and pursuing visual storytelling by way of charts, maps, diagrams, and illustrations.” He is the Inquirer staffer who is one of the most aware of the homicide numbers, because he’s the one who has to plug in those numbers into data files and create the graphs and charts the newspaper uses. And while I’m a bit of a numbers geek myself, it wasn’t exactly difficult math to look up the number of homicides on the specified dates, and calculate numbers and percentages.

Think about that: 3.34% of Philadelphia’s entire population loss was due to murder.

Of course, it was surely higher than that. While 1,222 out of the 36,539 population loss were directly murdered, there has to have been a significant number of additional souls, family and friends of the murder victims, who just got the Hell out of Philly! How many would that have been? Well, only the Lord knows that, and he hasn’t told me the number.

Domestic migration, meanwhile, continued to drive the city’s population loss.

International migration in the period ending July 2022 had a net increase of about 5,000 people from the previous year, slowly rebounding from Trump-era immigration policies. Martin said Philadelphia’s decade of growth was largely driven by foreign-born residents coming to the city.

Meanwhile, among people relocating domestically in the year ending July 2022, an estimated 32,500 more people moved out of Philadelphia than in, almost double the domestic migration loss from 2021.

The influx of immigrants couldn’t offset the net loss in domestic movers, so the city saw a net loss of about 25,000 people because of international and domestic migration.

Translation: a lot of people who didn’t really know that much about Philadelphia, perhaps including foreign-born immigrants who had relatively little choice, moved in, but many, many more people, who did know Philly because they had lived there, got the heck out of Dodge!

This is the legacy of Mayor Jim Kenney, District Attorney Larry Krasner, and Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw. They are not the only ones, of course, but they are the executive leaders of the city, the ones whose day-to-day actions will make the city either a better place to live, or a worse one. Apparently a lot more people see the city as a worse place to live, not a better one.