The Philadelphia Police Department have reported 23 homicides so far this year in the City of Brotherly Love, while Broad + Liberty shows 26. That website, having reported the undercounting via the classification of ‘suspicious’ deaths not listed as homicides, is using various police reports as its source.

But regardless of whether we use the Philadelphia Police Department’s statistics, or Broad + Liberty’s, one thing is certain: Through the first 22 days of January, Philadelphia has seen a lot fewer murders than the previous three years.

We had previously noted the decline in the homicide rate in the City of Brotherly Love that began last November, and it at least seems to be continuing into this year. After Hallowe’en, Philadelphia saw 71 homicides, over 61 days, an average of 1.1639 per day. With 23 homicides in 22 days — using the Police Department’s figures — 2023 is seeing 1.0455 per day, or, using Broad + Liberty’s numbers, 26 in 22 days, for an average of 1.1818 per day. Given that only three weeks plus one day have passed, either of those figures is reasonably in line with the numbers seenj over the last two months in the city.

Could Philly see fewer than 500 murders in 2023? The total would have to be ‘just’ 422 to bring the four-year average under Mayor Jim Kenney, District Attorney Larry Krasner, and Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw under 500 per year, which would be achievable if the homicide rate being seen these first three weeks holds steady for the year, but we all know that murders pick up when summer arrives. But there is at least some hope, at least statistically speaking, that the total will be under 500 this year.