It was one year ago today that we correctly projected the number of homicides in 2021 for Philadelphia, 562.

It was just yesterday that we noted that The Philadelphia Inquirer doesn’t seem to pay much notice to the murders of young black males in the City of Brotherly Love. I pointed out, in the footnote, that with 287 homicides in 188 days (as of 11:59 PM on July 7^th) equaled 1.5266 homicides per day, projecting a total of 557 for the year.

Well, it looks like the city’s thugs realized that they weren’t quite meeting their quota, because after two straight days of the Philadelphia Police Department reporting only one homicide, the gang bangers caught up: the Current Crime Statistics page shows 291 killings as of 11:59 PM on July 8^th. 291 ÷ 189 days in the year, = 1.5397 homicides per day, for a projected 562 for the year.

Then, guess what happened? Eight days later, we reported that the homicide rate had dropped slightly, to 1.5306 homicides per day, and the projection dropped down to 559.

It kept falling from there, and on Tuesday, September 7, 2021, we were able to report that there had been a real lull in killings in the City of Brotherly Love:

The Philadelphia Police Department reported that, as of 11:59 PM EDT on Labor Day, September 6^th, there had been 363 homicides in the City of Brotherly Love so far this year. With 249 days of the year having elapsed, that gives Philly an average of 1.4578 murders a day, which would yield 532 murders for the entire year, if that average was maintained.

As we reported on July 9^th, the city then had a rate of 1.5397 homicides per day, for a projected 562 for the year. Thus, even with the really, really bad part of the year in the statistics, the ‘projected’ homicide total for 2021 has dropped by thirty souls.

But there’s more. Over the last 1½ months, the murder rate has really dropped. There had been 314 homicides as of July 22^nd, the 203^rd day of the year. Since that time, 46 days ago, there have been ‘just’ 49 murders, a rate of 1.0652 per day. With 116 days left in 2021, if that rate were maintained, there would be ‘just’ 124 more killings, for a total of 487 for the year, 12 fewer than last year, and 13 fewer than 1990’s all time record of 500. If that number was the final one, it would be 75 fewer homicides than the math had projected just two months ago.

Which raises the obvious question: why has the homicide rate decreased? After all, mid-July through Labor Day is part of the long, hot summer, when killings seem to be at their peak. Did a really bad gang or two just get completely wiped out? Did a few gangs come up with a truce? Whatever happened, this ought to be a question real journalists would attempt to investigate.

The Philadelphia Police Department does not report the statistics on Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays, so we won’t get the numbers specifically for today, but only the aggregate totals for Friday, today, and Sunday on Monday morning. My question is: will we see a similar lull this year, as the hottest part of the summer is coming upon us? Just yesterday, I did the math: 280 homicides ÷ 188 days = 1.4894 per day, or a projected 543.62 murders for the year. Done a different way, dividing the number of murders this year, 280, by the same number on the same day as last year, 287, and then multiplying by 562, last year’s homicide total, I came up with a projected 548.29 killings. Either way, the city is looking at a homicide total in the 540-550 range.

The lull didn’t last in Philly. On September 24, 2021, the day before Thanksgiving, the city tied its all-time record of 500, set during the crack cocaine wars of 1990, pushing the rate back up to 1.5244 per day, for a projected 556.40 homicides for the year. After that, the rate kept slowly creeping up, and at the end of the year finished with 562, 1.5397 per day.

The lull? August of 2021 was not abnormally hot, with only 14 days in which the temperature reached or exceeded 90º F, and just three in which the temperature met or exceeded 95º. Beginning on July 9, 2021, from when the lull began, there were only 7 days in which the temperature reached or exceeded 90º, and 95º was never reached. Nighttime lows — and most homicides occur during the evening and nighttime hours — were in the low 70º range throughout the period.

From July 9^th through the end of Labor Day, there were only 20 days with any rain recorded, only 4 of which saw rain exceeding 1 inch.

I do not know the reason for the mid-to-end of summer lull in homicides, but it’s difficult to attribute it to the weather.