Killadelphia Though slightly below last year's pace, Philly is easil;y on track for over 500 murders this year.

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In doing some research for a completely different project, I came across an article of mine from August 23, 2021:

Haven’t the editors of The Philadelphia Inquirer noticed the numbers?

Homicides and shootings in the city have dropped significantly

Posted on August 23, 2021 | 9:05 PM EDT

We have previously noted the recent decrease in the number of homicides in the City of Brotherly Love. We noted, on July 9th, that there had been 291 killings as of 11:59 PM on July 8th. 291 ÷ 189 days in the year, = 1.5397 homicides per day, for a projected 562 for the year. If I recall correctly, that 562 number was my highest projection for the year.

But then, as of the 221st day of the year, 325 homicides had been recorded. 325 ÷ 221 days in the year, = 1.4706 homicides per day, for a projected 537 for the year. That number stayed fairly consistent, as a week later, with ‘just’ 339 homicides in 228 days, Philadelphia was seeing ‘only’ 1.4868 homicides per day, which works out to ‘just’ 543 over the course of 2021.

As of 11:59 PM on Sunday, August 22nd, the Philadelphia Police Department reported that there had been 345 homicides in the city. 345 ÷ 234 days = 1.4744 per day, or 538 projected for the year. The big news is that, over the past 31 days, a full month, if not a calendar month, there have been ‘just’ 31 homicides, ‘just’ 1.00 per day. With 131 days remaining in 2021, if that rate could be maintained, there would be ‘only’ 476 killings in Philly for the year. If The Philadelphia Inquirer has noticed that decrease, I haven’t seen it mentioned. It certainly doesn’t seem as though their Editorial Board has noticed.

There’s more at the original. But the line that caught my eye was, “We noted, on July 9th, that there had been 291 killings as of 11:59 PM on July 8th. 291 ÷ 189 days in the year, = 1.5397 homicides per day, for a projected 562 for the year.”

And 562 it turned out to be!

Between July 9th and September 6th, which Labor Day, the homicide rate dropped to 1.4578 per day, which would have worked out to ‘only’ 532 homicides. Sadly, the killing rate increased, and by the end of the year it was back up to 1.5397 per day, and that 562 projection was realized.

Also see: Robert Stacy McCain: Killadelphia Update

As of 11:59 PM EDT on Sunday, April 24th, there had been 151 murders in the City of Brotherly Love this year. That’s 4.43% below last year’s pace, when there had been 158 homicides by the end of April 24th.

As of April 24, 2021, 28.11% of city’s total of 562 murders had been committed. If the same percentage applies this year, Philly would see 537 homicides. The city still has the long, hot summer ahead.

But there’s an obvious question: what if Philadelphia doesn’t have that early July through early September lull this year? During the ‘lull,’ there were still 72 murders in the city, but had the ‘lull’ of 1.2203 homicides per day not occurred, there would have been 91 people killed.

Yes, I’m something of a numbers geek, but projecting things like this will always be somewhat problematic. It is well known that homicides increase as the weather gets warmer, and decrease as it cools down again. Yet, in Philly, the pace of killings picked up in the fall; that’s how the city ‘achieved’ its record of 562 souls sent early to their eternal rewards. A couple of weeks of rain could affect the projections, as could an early, heavy snow. A heat wave might keep the gang bangers inside in the air conditioning, and not out on the streets shooting at people.

Well, the 151 number didn’t even last the morning:

The 500 block of West Spencer Street (not Avenue) is not a terrible neighborhood. The area is filled with mostly well-kept attached single-family homes, and North 5th Street is lined with decent-looking two-story businesses with (probable) apartments on the second floor.

Of course, when The Philadelphia Inquirer gets around to reporting it, they’ll remove the race of the victim!

Thus far, under Mayor Jim Kenney, District Attorney Larry Krasner, and Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw, Philadelphia has seen the first and third most homicides in its history, with only Mayor Wilson Goode’s — Mayor Goode of MOVE bombing fame! — record of 500 in the crack cocaine wars of 1990 in the middle of that. But I’m guessing that 2022 will see at least a solid second-place finish for Messrs Kenney and Krasner, and Miss Outlaw.

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2 thoughts on “Killadelphia Though slightly below last year's pace, Philly is easil;y on track for over 500 murders this year.”

  1. I watch Chicago almost as closely as you watch Philadelphia – though I rely on HeyJackass.com for the heavy lifting.

    One thing that became apparent is that improved medical attention has a dramatic impact on homicide rates. When Chicago reopened a long-closed trauma center on the South Side, cutting the ambulance ride about in half, a lot more shooting victims survived. A measurable number.

    Not sure what the situation in Kiladephia is, but my guess is that the cops and EMTs are getting better with tourniquets and other measures

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