Category Archives: Foreign Policy

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There’s no threat quite like an empty threat!

“Why do you keep bashing your head into that wall?” ask sensible people.

“Because it feels so good when I stop,” answers Ali Khamenei.

“We are capable of destroying all that the Zionists possess with one operation,” said General Ali Fadavi, the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps deputy commander. So, General Fadavi is telling us that Iran’s two separate ballistic missile attacks on Israel, the vast majority of which were intercepted, and the few that hit doing little damage, were not attempts to ‘destroy all that the Zionists possess’?

Iranian Officials Threaten Retaliation for Israeli Strikes

It was unclear how or when Iran plans to respond, or whether the rhetoric could be bluster. Iranian officials had downplayed the damage of Israel’s last attack.

By Farnaz Fassihi | Hallowe’en, October 31, 2024

Two top Iranian officials on Thursday said Iran planned to respond to Israel’s recent attacks, according to Iranian media, threatening to continue a cycle of retaliation between the countries.

“Iran’s response to the Zionist aggression is definite,” said Gen. Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, according to Iranian media. “We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years. We are capable of destroying all that the Zionists possess with one operation.”

General Fadavi’s remarks, made to Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen television station, were the first statement from an Iranian official indicating that Iran intended to retaliate to Israel’s Oct. 26 strikes on its soil. The escalating tit-for-tat cycle of direct attacks between Iran and Israel over the last six months has taken the region to the brink of an all-out war, but neither side appears to be standing down.

The second Iranian official, the head of the supreme leader’s office, Gholamhossein Mohammadi Golpayegani, also said on Thursday that Iran planned to deliver “a fierce, tooth-breaking response” to Israel’s “desperate action,” according to Tasnim, a semiofficial news agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards.

A “tooth-breaking response”? It’s a good thing that there are so many Jewish dentists! 🙂

Iran’s “Supreme Leader,” the Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered the attack after reviewing the damages reported by military officials, which detailed the strikes across Tehran’s missile production plants and defense systems, including the killing of four soldiers. The attack did not target existing missile stockpiles, meaning that Iran has some left, but the ability of the mad mullahs to have more of them built. The attack did not target Iran’s nuclear weapons research facility, which is supposed to have been seriously hardened against attack.

In one regard, I get it. The Ayatollah has to strike at Israel last, because he feels the need to save face, both for his country and for himself. However, he is reported to be seriously, if not terminally ill, and at 85-years-old, he doesn’t have that much time left on earth. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu probably looks at things the same way, that Israel must strike last, but his concerns are different: Israel faces enemies north and south and cannot afford the slightest sign of weakness. Mr Netanyahu’s political position isn’t the strongest, so there are personal reasons for him to continue to strike.

Iran striking Israel is, in the end, fanaticism. None of the actual nations bordering Israel want war, because they know that Israel is capable of defeating them easily. Iran is 1,000 miles away from Israel, and isn’t an Arabic nation; the people there are primarily Persians. Iran’s grievance with Israel is wholly religious, because the Islamists who control the place hate Jews. There is absolutely no other reason for Iran to want to fight Israel.

But, then again, Iran is ultimately governed by a madman.

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World War III Watch: Will American/NATO weapons be used against North Korean troops inside Russia? With President Biden sinking into dementia, who will take that decision?

This site noted, four days ago, that there were roughly 3,000 North Korean troops ‘undergoing training at military bases in eastern Russia’, and that John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said those troops would become “legitimate military targets” if they should be used in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Now those troops aren’t quite so far away. From The New York Times:

Ukraine Braces for Russians to Assault With North Korean Troops

Several thousand North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia’s western Kursk region, where they are expected to support Moscow’s efforts to dislodge invading Ukrainian forces.

By Constant Méheut | Monday, October 28, 2024 | 10:53 AM EDT

Kyiv — Ukraine is bracing for assaults involving North Korean soldiers who arrived last week in Russia’s western Kursk region, where they are expected to support Moscow’s efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces who invaded in August. Continue reading →

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No wonder Israel doesn’t trust the United Nations

Either the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, UNRWA, didn’t properly check Mohammad Abu Itiwi’s background, something which would be hugely improper considering the circumstances in which the UN worked in Gaza prior to the war, or they just didn’t care, or the UNRWA leadership in Gaza knew who and what he was, and were deliberately providing Hamas with ‘civilian’ cover.

In one way, it really doesn’t matter: the outcome was the same, a Hamas commander was given wide access, wages, access to UN vehicles, and civilian cover. Is it any wonder that the Israeli government do not trust the United Nations and its various organizations and projects? Continue reading →

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World War III Watch: North Korean troops are ‘training’ in Russia

With the presidential election only twelve days away, this story is not getting nearly as much traction as it should have. From The Washington Post:

North Korean troops are in Russia, would be ‘legitimate targets’ in Ukraine, U.S. says

Citing newly declassified intelligence, the Biden administration said that at least 3,000 personnel are undergoing combat training in Russia, though it is unclear if they’ll join the war.

By Dan Lamothe, Missy Ryan, and Michelle Ye Hee Lee | Wednesday, October 23, 2024 | 6:20 AM EDT | Updated: 5:56 PM EDT

The U.S. government has evidence that at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers are in Russia receiving training, senior Biden administration officials said Wednesday, a development they said could have global implications and make those troops “legitimate military targets” in Ukraine should they enter the ongoing war there.

The disclosure, which officials said is based on newly declassified U.S. intelligence, coincides with similar pronouncements in recent days from the governments of Ukraine and South Korea. NATO and the United States had not previously confirmed the North Korean troop movements, and the administration said Washington was doing so now to convey the seriousness with which it views the matter.

“We recognize the potential danger here,” John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, told reporters at the White House. “And we’re going to be talking to allies and partners, including Ukrainians, about what the proper next steps are going to be.”

He emphasized repeatedly that the U.S. government does not yet know for certain that any North Korean soldiers will join the fighting in Ukraine, but he warned there would be consequences if they do.

“If these North Korean troops are employed against Ukraine,” Kirby said, “they will become legitimate military targets.”

That’s a simple statement of fact, but the obvious question becomes: “legitimate military targets” by whom? Representative Mike Turner (R-OH), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said yesterday the US should consider taking “direct military action” if North Korean troops enter the war in Ukraine.

Not just no, but Hell no!

I would not anticipate that, if the story details are accurate, that the troops are undergoing training at military bases in eastern Russia, those troops would enter the war before our election. With winter approaching, the ‘traditional’ seasons for ground troop warfare are ending. The распу́тица, the season of mud, can occur in Ukraine at any time in the autumn that heavy rains fall, to be followed by the hard freezes of winter. I feel confident that, if elected, Donald Trump would not be sending American troops to fight in Ukraine even if elements of the Korean People’s Army Ground Force did join the battle and move into Ukraine, but the possibility exists that Kamala Harris Emhoff will be the one taking that decision.

However, even if the chances that the United States would take “direct military action” are relatively low — though neocons like Bill Kristol, who wants to get the United States involved in every war that comes along, though he never chose to serve when he could have during the latter stages of the war in Vietnam, would push for it — there would be huge pressure on our European NATO allies to send troops to fight in Ukraine.

The Russo-Ukrainian War has mostly been a stalemate for the better part of two years, and I have said it before: Ukraine might be able to hold off the Russians for a while, but they cannot win their war and expel Russia from Ukraine without NATO troops on the ground in direct combat with Russia. If North Korean troops appear on the battlefield, it will be seen as legitimizing the introduction of NATO troops in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine has largely faded in the American conscience, with the real military debate being about the war between Israel and the Islamist terrorists of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the possibility of expansion of that war to Iran. But the war in Ukraine is the one in which the enemy has nuclear weapons, and any move of NATO troops into Ukraine to defend against the Russians, and perhaps North Koreans, brings with it the possibility of Vladimir Putin ordering the use of ‘tactical’ nukes against NATO troop concentrations and supply bases.

This is a very bad thing.
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Also posted on American Free News Network. Check out American Free News Network for more well written and well reasoned conservative commentary.

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Another one bites the dust!

We now have another reason why Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, fled Lebanon on the orders of his bosses in Iran. Just days after Hezbollah’s fearless leader, Hassan Nazrallah was sent to Jahannam, the late Mr Nasrallah’s cousin, Hashem Safieddine, seen as his likely successor, also went to see his 72 bacha bazi boys. From The New York Times:

The late Hashem Safieddine.

Israeli Military Says It Killed Top Hezbollah Leader

Hashem Safieddine was widely seen as a potential successor to his cousin, Hassan Nasrallah, the armed group’s former leader whom Israel also killed in September. There was no immediate confirmation from Hezbollah.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024 | Updated: Wednesday, October 23, 2024 | 3:58 AM EDT

Israel’s military said on Tuesday that it had killed Hashem Safieddine, the presumed successor to Hezbollah’s recently slain leader, in an airstrike near Beirut, Lebanon, in early October.

The airstrike had targeted a meeting of senior Hezbollah leaders. It was one of the heaviest bombardments to hit the area known as the Dahiya since an Israeli assault killed Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on Sept. 27.

Perhaps “meeting(s) of senior Hezbollah leaders” aren’t the safest places to be. I suppose that Mr Safieddine didn’t have his pager with him.

CNN has a list of Hezbollah’s top leaders, and how many of them became former leaders.

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Another #Hezbollah leader goes into exile Have governments-in-exile ever achieved liberation for their countries?

My good friend William Teach of The Pirate’s Cove reported that, now that Yahya Sinwar has been sent to his 72 bacha bazi boys in Jahannam, the so-called ‘Palestinian Authority’ in Judea and Samaria are calling for a ceasefire. No Westerner can truly comprehend what passes for ‘thinking’ among the Arabs, but at least to me, it sounds as though the ‘Authority’ are worried that, now that Mr Sinwar is dead, the Israel Defense Force might turn more of its attention to the West Bank. I’d say that the IDF has more work to do in Gaza and the Hezbollah-controlled areas of southern Lebanon first.

We noted on Saturday that Mr Sinwar’s top surviving deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, has vowed that Hamas will continue the fight, but also noted that Mr al-Hayya lives comfortably in exile in Doha, Qatar, where many of the wealthy Hamas leaders stayed. Mr Sinwar, at least, had remained in Gaza, to ‘lead’ his Hamas followers in their war against Israel.

Which leads me to this article from The Jerusalem Post:

Fearing an Israeli targeted strike, Hezbollah’s new chief relocates to Tehran – report

Qassem left Beirut for Tehran on October 5, accompanied by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

By WALLA! | Sunday, October 20, 2024

Also read: The Jerusalem Post, “‘We were completely at Hezbollah’s mercy,’ former UN peace-keeper says: UNIFIL forces were heavily restricted by Hezbollah, and little was done when they reported violations of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.“

Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, has relocated from Lebanon to Iran out of fear that Israel may attempt to assassinate him, according to a Sunday report by the Emirati website Aram News, citing an Iranian source.

The Iranian source claimed, according to the website, that Qassem, who is considered the de facto leader of Hezbollah since the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, has been in Tehran since October 5.

The source added that Qassem left Beirut that same day on an Iranian plane, accompanied by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, to Damascus, and from there, he continued to Tehran.

The report continued to note that Sheikh Qassem’s second speech was recorded in his new residence in Tehran, and the move to Iran was ordered by senior officials in the Iranian government. But, as we have previously noted, Ismail Haniyeh found out that being safely ensconced in Tehran isn’t necessarily as safe as hoped.

The Palestinian Chronicle reported, in a biography of Sheikh Qassem, that he studied Islam under Shi’ite scholars, so that would make him appeal even more to Iran’s religious overseers. ‘Governments in exile’ are formed by governments and ‘leaders’ who have been defeated in their home countries. Poland’s leaders fled first to Paris following the Nazis’ September 1939 invasion, and later to London, after the Third Reich turned West and quickly defeated France. General Charles de Gaulle formed a French government-in-exile in London after France surrendered in June of 1940. These governments in exile exerted some small influence, but they never actually won the liberation of their countries; that was accomplished by other, foreign powers.

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Hamas say they won’t give up, even with Yahya Sinwar in Hell

At what point in history did the losers in a war ever get to dictate terms to the winners?

All kinds of people were sagely telling the world that, with the express train that sent Hamas’ leader, Yahya Sinwar, to his 72 bacha bazi boys in Jahannam, there was a fresh opportunity for a ceasefire to be negotiated. But the next dead man walking says no. From The New York Times:

Hamas Says Its Demands Are Unchanged as Biden Pushes for Gaza Cease-Fire

A top deputy to the killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar vowed that his “banner will not fall” and that the group would hold to its cease-fire conditions.

By Liam Stack, Aaron Boxerman, Bilal Shbair, and Jim Tankersley

Khalil al-Hayya.

A top Hamas official vowed on Friday that the killing of the group’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, would change nothing for its war with Israel, saying that it would fight on even as President Biden pressed for a deal to stop the conflict in the Gaza Strip and free the remaining hostages there.

In Hamas’s first official comments since Israel announced Mr. Sinwar’s death on Thursday, his deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, said that the group maintained its conditions for a cease-fire. He said Hamas still insisted on an end to Israel’s onslaught in Gaza, as well as its complete withdrawal from the territory and the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israel.

“We are continuing Hamas’s path,” Mr. al-Hayya, who lives in exile in Qatar, said in televised remarks in which he praised Mr. Sinwar for dying on the battlefield and added that his “banner will not fall.” It remained unclear when Hamas would announce a successor to Mr. Sinwar, who was fatally shot by Israeli soldiers in southern Gaza on Wednesday.

Mr. Sinwar orchestrated the Hamas assault on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, during which about 1,200 people were killed and another 250 were taken to Gaza as hostages. The assault led to Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza, which has killed 42,000 people, according to local health officials, and left much of the territory in ruins.

Mr al-Hayya continued to say that there would be no release of the 101 hostages being held by Hamas until their demands are met. Of course, as the Times noted, Mr al-Hayya lives comfortably in exile in Doha, Qatar, where many of the wealthy Hamas leaders stayed. He’s far less vulnerable to Israeli attack, but, as Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah learned the hard way, living outside of the ‘Palestinian’ areas does not guarantee that your health won’t take a very quick turn for the worse.

There is continual political pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to cut a deal that gets the hostages released, but that’s a poor idea. In 2011, Israel traded 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, one of whom was Mr Sinwar, for the release of one captured Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, and look how that turned out. It’s cold-hearted to say, but the 101 hostages, perhaps a third of whom are believed to already be dead, need to be considered casualties of the war, and lost forever. If, by chance, there are a few left alive and they are somehow rescued, great, but no ‘Palestinian’ prisoners — Mr Sinwar was in prison for killing four ‘Palestinians’ in Khan Younis — should ever be released.

The hostages are the only point of strength Hamas have; if Mr Netanyahu and the Israeli government take the hard decision to regard themas casualties, Hamas will have nothing left.

Mr Sinwar’s body will probably be given a Muslim burial in a secret place in Israel, to prevent it from becoming some sort of sick shrine for the ‘Palestinian’ irredentists to visit.

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The demented mind of Yahya Sinwar

The psychopath Yahya Sinwar. You can see the crazy in his eyes.

To me, the most amazing thing about Hamas’ October 7, 2023 surprise attack on Israel was that they thought that they could get away with it. The New York Times reported, five months ago:

As an architect of the Oct. 7 attacks, (Yahya) Sinwar masterminded a strategy that he knew would provoke a ferocious Israeli response. But in Hamas’s calculus, the deaths of many Palestinian civilians — who do not have access to Hamas’s subterranean tunnels — were the necessary cost of upending the status quo with Israel.

That sounds like utter stupidity to me, but I’m a product of Western civilization, not Islamic barbarism. I’ve said it before: Mr Sinwar’s actions resemble, to me, those of Adolf Hitler, holed up in his Führerbunker, unwilling to surrender to save the Germany he supposedly loved so much from the oncoming destruction and devastation that the inexorable Allied advance and bombing campaign would continue to cause.

Now there’s more insight into his diseased mind:

Secret Documents Show Hamas Tried to Persuade Iran to Join Its Oct. 7 Attack

The Times reviewed the minutes of 10 meetings among Hamas’s top leaders. The records show the militant group avoided several escalations since 2021 to falsely imply it had been deterred — while seeking Iranian support for a major attack.

By Ronen Bergman, Adam Rasgon, and Patrick Kingsley | Reporting from Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Doha, Qatar | Saturday, October 12, 2024 | 9:55 AM EDT

For more than two years, Yahya Sinwar huddled with his top Hamas commanders and plotted what they hoped would be the most devastating and destabilizing attack on Israel in the militant group’s four-decade history.

Minutes of Hamas’s secret meetings, seized by the Israeli military and obtained by The New York Times, provide a detailed record of the planning for the Oct. 7 terrorist attack, as well as Mr. Sinwar’s determination to persuade Hamas’s allies, Iran and Hezbollah, to join the assault or at least commit to a broader fight with Israel if Hamas staged a surprise cross-border raid.

Hezbollah certainly did agree to that “broader fight,” though perhaps the Hezbollah leadership, at least those who are still breathing, might regret it now. I’ve seen speculation that Hassan Nasrallah might not have been killed instantly by Israel’s bombing attack on his location, but might have been trapped in an unventilated pocket and suffocated, perhaps giving him time to realize just how badly he had f(ornicated) up.

Iran? Several Iranian big wigs have been killed in Israeli attacks on Hezbollah sites, and, more embarrassing of all, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed when a safe house in Tehran where he was staying was destroyed by a planted bomb. But, even with that, Iran has limited its direct action to two mass ballistic missile attacks against Israel, both of which were largely intercepted. And now CNN has reported:

Iran’s government is extremely nervous and has been engaging in urgent diplomatic efforts with countries in the Middle East to gauge whether they can reduce the scale of Israel’s response to its missile attack earlier this month and – if that fails – help protect Tehran, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

Iran’s anxiety stems from uncertainty about whether the US can convince Israel not to strike Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities, and the fact that its most important proxy militia in the region, Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened by Israeli military operations in recent weeks, the sources said.

Mr Sinwar must be so disappointed! Back to the Times:

The documents, which represent a breakthrough in understanding Hamas, also show extensive efforts to deceive Israel about its intentions as the group laid the groundwork for a bold assault and a regional conflagration that Mr. Sinwar hoped would cause Israel to “collapse.”

The documents consist of minutes from 10 secret planning meetings of a small group of Hamas political and military leaders in the run-up to the attack, on Oct. 7, 2023. The minutes include 30 pages of previously undisclosed details about the way Hamas’s leadership works and the preparations that went into its attack.

This is what makes the article really interesting, and I urge you to follow the link and read it; the Times has done very useful journalism here, but I cannot just plagiarize it and reproduce the whole thing.

Mr Sinwar and his minions clearly wanted, and perhaps even expected, Hezbollah and Iran to follow Hamas into the fight, but, as the above CNN story told us, while Iran might like striking at Israel, even the mad mullahs aren’t particularly interested in what happens if Israel strikes back.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly denied that Iran had any role in the Oct. 7 attack. And American officials have described intelligence showing key Iranian leaders were caught by surprise, fueling doubts that Iran played a direct role in planning. But Hamas leaders have spoken broadly about the support they have received from regional allies, and there have been scattered and sometimes conflicting reports that Iranian and Hezbollah officials helped plan the attack and train fighters.

So, maybe Iran and Hezbollah helped Hamas, and maybe they simply spewed hot air; we just don’t know. But we do know one thing: whatever training the Hamas fighters were given, it wasn’t very good. They were able to kidnap and rape and burn and murder, but if there was any actual military goal, they didn’t achieve it. Instead, they engaged in an orgy of death and destruction, one which made the denizens of Gaza deliriously happy, right up until the IDF got its response organized and entered Gaza.

The Gazans aren’t so happy now!

And Mr Sinwar isn’t too happy, either. What he expected isn’t what happened. Gaza is heavily damaged, Hamas seriously weakened, Hezbollah has lost almost all of its previous leadership, and has perhaps a thousand of its lower-level people seriously injured by the diabolically brilliant pager attack. Iran has made two expensive but ultimately futile ballistic missile attacks, and is now shuddering in fear over what Israel might do in retaliation. Like the Führer he’s now emulating, he’s waiting in his underground bunker, waiting for a miracle deliverance to keep him from adjourning to Jahannam. He guessed wrong, and he’s going to pay for it. Sadly, tens of thousands of innocent people have also paid the price for his fantasies and delusions.