I was wryly amused to see these two editorial links together on the front page of The Wall Street Journal’s website front page Wednesday morning. As President Joe Biden wants desperately to reduce inflation, with the midterm elections just 55 days away, it demonstrates the lack of thought the Administration has put into its policies.
Another Inflation Jolt for Markets
Investors get a reality check about prices and Fed tightening.
By The Editorial Board | Tuesday, September 13, 2022 | 6:54 PM EDT
Biden Administration officials have been claiming so confidently that inflation is under control and falling that investors may have believed it. Bad idea. Tuesday’s report on the consumer-price index for August showed inflation has remained high and sticky, and markets promptly fell out of bed.
And we mean from the top bunk. The 3.94% tumble in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the worst day since 2020, and the declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were worse. Investors apparently had believed the hopeful chatter that inflation was headed downward, and that the Federal Reserve wouldn’t need to raise interest rates so high as to court a recession. Investing lesson of the week: Never trust a politician.
Consumer prices overall rose 0.1% in August, after being flat in July. But the decline was almost entirely the result of falling energy prices. Gasoline fell 10.6% and fuel oil 5.9% in the month. That was a happy respite from the spring when gasoline prices averaged more than $5 a gallon nationwide, but prices at the pump are still up 25.6% in the last 12 months and still average $3.71 a gallon.
The larger problem is that the energy declines weren’t enough to offset price increases across nearly everything else. The 12-month inflation rate in August fell only to 8.3%, down from July’s 8.5%, but higher than the 8% to 8.1% that economists had expected.
Then there’s this, from Washington Post economics reporter and Editorial Board member Heather Long:
Here's the chart for non-supervisory workers. Their pay adjusted for inflation is -2.4% in the past year. pic.twitter.com/MUlu0S8ceL
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 13, 2022
Hmmm: “Inflation has been eating up wage gains since April 2021 and shows little sign of significant easing.” People are getting poorer in real terms, and that has been the case really since Joe Biden became President.
Then there was this:
Biden Freezes Oil and Gas Leases
Calling Joe Manchin: Interior uses ‘sue and settle’ to suspend Trump-era approvals.
By The Editorial Board | Tuesday, September 13, 2022 | 6:53 PM EDT
Joe Manchin’s deal with Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer isn’t looking so good for the West Virginian, and the latest evidence is a Biden Administration settlement with green groups that stops previously approved oil and gas leases.
The Interior Department last week agreed to conduct additional climate reviews for five federal oil and gas lease sales held in 2019 and 2020 that were challenged by environmental groups. Activists claimed the Trump Administration didn’t sufficiently study the climate impact of the leases under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).
Rather than defend the earlier environmental reviews, the Biden Administration surrendered to their progressive friends. According to last week’s legal settlement, the climate reviews will incorporate the “social cost” of greenhouse gas emissions that could result from the leases. This takes into account indirect global costs of emissions such as property damage from natural disasters, risk of conflict over resources, reduced agricultural productivity from drought, and more.
By including the social cost in the NEPA reviews, the Administration will be able to claim the leases have a significant negative environmental impact even when they don’t and then seek to cancel them. Alternatively, the Administration could try to force oil and gas producers to mitigate their emissions by helping fund its climate agenda.
While the settlement doesn’t outright cancel the leases, it will effectively freeze their development. Interior has agreed not to approve new drilling permits or rights-of-way on the leases until it completes the climate reviews. Even after those reviews are done and if Interior allows development, green groups will still be able to challenge the reviews and leases afresh in court.
There’s more at the original. The Wall Street Journal has a serious paywall, but even if you’re not a subscriber, you can get a couple of free articles a month.
The Biden Administration wants to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the use of fossil fuels to do so, but freezing oil and gas extraction leases won’t do anything about that. It simply means that more oil-and-gas production will come from overseas, and less from the United States, which means more of United States’ workers money will be going to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela rather than staying at home. Even if you don’t like those evil oil corporations, it means that there will be fewer American oil company workers, workers who earn what the Biden Administration likes to call “good, union wages,” will have jobs while more men overseas will be drawing paychecks from American dollars.
All of this makes American workers poorer. The American oil rig worker who makes big bucks per hour, but is getting no hours isn’t helping his family, and isn’t helping our economy. The oilfield worker who is unemployed because the Biden Administration is throwing obstacles into American production isn’t spending money at Dunkin’ Donuts for a coffee and bagel on the work in the morning, is buying fewer clothes because his work clothes aren’t getting worn out as fast, and his lack of work affects a lot of other people downstream.
The economic measure I find most important is actually a simple one, the velocity of money. The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. The lower the velocity of money, the less positive impact a dollar has on the economy. If the gasoline you buy is extracted in Kuwait, it may cost the same amount as if it had been extracted in Texas, but the dollars spent on Kuwaiti wages disappear from our economy while the dollars spent on Texas workers stay here. The more gasoline and diesel fuel we produce in the United States, the faster he velocity of money in the United States, and the more benefits and wealth accrue to American workers and their families.
There is another part not being considered in all of this. If we assume that we can move away from an energy economy based on petroleum, as the climate change activists want, and we can power our homes and cars and economy on ‘renewable,’ non-polluting energy, the more petroleum we buy from overseas because we are producing less here during that transition, then the more of the value our natural resources we have just wasted, left in the ground with no value. We will be making ourselves poorer during the transition.
Of course, the Biden Administration’s climate change activists can’t see that part, because they never think things through, and never really consider the economic impact on American workers in their plans. But hey, the American working class are primarily conservative, primarily Republican voters, so you can’t expect the Democrats to consider them, can you?